اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر درآمد کشاورزان ایران با استفاده از رویکرد DSSAT

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

10.22059/jne.2023.356366.2535

چکیده

براساس گزارش ریسک ­های جهانی، تغییر اقلیم در سال 2018 پنجمین ریسک جهانی از نظر احتمال وقوع بود و براساس همین گزارش این پدیده از لحاظ میزان اثرات آن بر جهان و محیط‌ زیست، رتبة دوم را در بین سایر ریسک­ ها به‌خود اختصاص داده است. همین امر بر اهمیت بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم تأکید دارد. در این تحقیق به تحلیل اقتصادی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر درآمد گندم کاران در کشور در طول (2052-2022) پرداخته شده است. برای شبیه‌سازی عملکرد گندم آبی و تحلیل اقتصادی تحت سناریو­های تغییر اقلیم از برنامه شبیه‌سازی DSSAT استفاده شد. داده­ های هواشناسی مورد نیاز تحت سناریو­های مختلف از نرم‌افزار MarkSim استخراج شد. نتایج نشان داد که درآمد گندم‌کاران آبی تحت سناریو­های تغییر اقلیم کاهش خواهد یافت. همچنین در بعضی از مناطق ایران کاشت گندم آبی در شرایط بدون تغییر اقلیم و تحت سناریو­های تغییر اقلیم برتری بیش­تری دارد و به‌نظر می‌رسد این مناطق را می‌توان به‌عنوان مناطق مطلوب برای ایجاد جایگاه­های کشت گندم آبی در نظر گرفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The effects of climate change on the income of Iranian farmers: DSSAT approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahsa Sayahi
  • Mahmood Hashemitabar
  • Ahmad Akbari

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Managment, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.

چکیده [English]

According to the Global Risks Report, climate change was the fifth global risk in 2018 in terms of probability of occurrence. According to the same report, this phenomenon ranked second among other risks in terms of its effects on the world and the environment. It emphasizes the importance of investigating the effects of climate change. In this research, the economic analysis of the effects of climate change on the income of wheat farmers in the country during (2052-2022) has been done. DSSAT simulation program has been used to simulate the yield of irrigated wheat and economic analysis under climate change scenarios. The meteorological data required under different scenarios are taken from MarkSim software. The results show that the income of irrigated wheat farmers will decrease under climate change scenarios. Also, in some regions of Iran, irrigated wheat planting is dominant in conditions without climate change and under climate change scenarios, and it seems that these areas can be considered as favorable areas for creating irrigated wheat cultivation ports.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Irrigated wheat
  • Income
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