نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

پیش‌‌بینی زوال روسازی جاده جنگلی در دوره زمانی توقف بهره برداری چوبی در جنگل‌های کوهستانی شمال کشور

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه جنگلداری و اقتصاد جنگل دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 گروه جنگلداری دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، نور، ایران

چکیده

عدم تخصیص بودجه کافی پس از اجرای قانون استراحت جنگل‌ها، مرمت و نگهداری جاده‌های جنگلی طرحهای جنگلداری را مختل و موجب زوال آنها گردیده است. هدف این مطالعه، پیش‌بینی زوال جاده جنگلی در دوره 10 ساله اجرای قانون استراحت جنگل با استفاده از مدل زنجیره مارکوف پنهان و ارزیابی تأثیر آن بر ‌‌هزینه مرمت و نگهداری جاده می باشد. در‌‌ این پژوهش، طول 6/11 کیلومتر از شبکه جاده جنگلی سری 3 آغوزچال نوشهر انتخاب شد. همچنین با توجه به اطلاعات وضعیت جاده و با استفاده از شاخص‌های روسازی PCI و FRPCI در دوره زمانی متوالی 3 ساله (1399-1396) بررسی و روند زوال جاده توسط مدل زنجیره مارکوف پنهان در دوره 10 ساله پیش-بینی شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد، سرعت تغییر وضعیت روند زوال جاده از شرایط عالی به خوب سریعتر از تغییر از مرحله متوسط به ضعیف می باشد. از بین قطعات مورد بررسی، حدود 60% درصد تعداد قطعات جاده به‌صورت گسیخته و کمترین تعداد، قطعات با وضعیت عالی می‌باشند. پیش‌بینی می‌شود با ‌توجه به اجرای طرح تنفس و عدم تخصیص بودجه در طی یک‌دوره 10 ساله، جاده با یک شیب تند نزولی به زوال کامل برسد. نتایج این تحقیق، ضرورت تسریع در تخصیص بودجه جهت مرمت و نگهداری جاده موجود را تأکید می کند و همچنین مدل پیش‌بینی عملکرد زنجیره مارکوف با خطای مربع میانگین ها 0.01، قابلیت‌های لازم جهت پیش‌بینی دقیق روند واقعی زوال جاده را دارا می‌باشد. به‌کارگیری دیگر مدل‌های پیش‌بینی و ارزیابی در دوره‌های زمانی بیشتر، نتایج دقیق‌تری بهمراه خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the decline of forest road pavement during the logging ban period in the north mountain forests of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Abdollahi 1
  • Seyed Ata ollah Hosseini 1
  • Akbar Najafi 2

1 Forestry and Forest Economics Department, Faculty of Natural Resources , University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Deptartment of Forestry , Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Science, Tarbiat Modarres University, Noor, Iran

چکیده [English]

The lack of allocation of sufficient funds after the implementation of the forest rest law, the restoration and maintenance of forest roads has disrupted the forestry projects and caused them to deteriorate. The purpose of this study is to predict forest road deterioration during the 10-year period of implementation of forest rest law using hidden Markov chain model and evaluate its effect on the cost of road repair and maintenance. In this research, along the 11.6 km forest road network series 3 of Aghuzchal (Nowshahr) in the educational-research forest of Tarbiat Modares University, according to the road condition information using PCI and FRPCI pavement indicators in a consecutive period of 3 years (2016-2019) the investigation and road deterioration process was predicted by the hidden Markov chain model in a 10-year period. The results showed that the process of deterioration of the road from excellent to good is much faster than the process of its changes from medium to poor. The highest percentage of road sections are broken and the lowest number are sections in excellent condition. It is predicted that due to the implementation of the breathing plan and the lack of budget allocation during a 10-year period, the road will go down a steep slope to complete deterioration. The results emphasize the need to accelerate the allocation of funds for the repair and maintenance of the existing road, and the Markov chain performance prediction model with an RMSE error of 0.01 has the necessary capabilities to accurately predict the actual road deterioration process. The use of other prediction and evaluation models in more time periods will bring more accurate results.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Modeling
  • Markov chain
  • Hyrcanian forest rest
  • Forest road maintenance
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 75، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 3
شهریور 1401
صفحه 502-514