سنجش تعادل‌ و توازن‌های منطقه ای با به‌کارگیری ارزش خدمات اکوسیستمی و پایش فضایی مراکز گراویتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه برنامه ریزی و طراحی محیط، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 گروه علوم و مهندسی محیط زیست، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 گروه برنامه‌ریزی و طراحی محیط، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

4 گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران

چکیده

تصمیمات مدیریتی سرزمین و به­ تبع آن تغییرات کاربری ­و پوشش ­اراضی طی چند دهة اخیر در ناحیه رویشی ­زاگرسی بر ارزش‌ خدمات اکوسیستمی و توزیع مکانی آن­ ها اثرگذار بوده ­است. بنابراین، پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی اثرات تصمیمات مکانی سرزمین بر شاخص‌های فضایی تعادل ­و ­توازن ارزش ­خدمات ­اکوسیستمی در بازة زمانی 30 ساله (2020-1990) در استان کهگیلویه ­و بویراحمد انجام شد. به­ منظور انجام این پژوهش طبقات کاربری ­و پوشش­ اراضی با روش پردازش شی­ گرا از تصاویر ماهواره­ های لندست و سنتینل استخراج شد. سپس ارزش اقتصادی خدمات ­اکوسیستم با روش انتقال منافع برآورد شد و عدم ­قطعیت آن با روش تحلیل شاخص حساسیت مورد سنجش قرار گرفت. در نهایت تغییرات تعادل­ و توازن فضایی ارزش­ خدمات اکوسیستمی با ایجاد شبکه ­های یک کیلومتری، توسعة شاخص‌ گراویتی و تحلیل آمار فضایی مورد پایش قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج، افزایش مساحت مناطق انسان‌ساخت و اراضی کشاورزی به­ترتیب با 9/8 و 6/3 درصد در بازة زمانی 30 ساله، کاهش سه درصدی ارزش کل خدمات ­اکوسیستمی از 152/6هزار میلیارد تومان در سال 1990 به 148/5هزار میلیارد تومان در سال 2020 را به‌دنبال داشته است. از آنجا که نتایج شاخص حساسیت پایین را نشان داد، مدل‌سازی قابل اعتماد، دقیق و انعطاف‌پذیر با عدم قطعیت کم است. همچنین تحلیل‌ فضایی لکه‌های داغ کاهش دو درصدی مناطق با پتانسیل بالای عرضة خدمات ­اکوسیستمی را نشان می‌دهد. طبق نتایج تغییر مرکز گراویتی (مرکز ثقل، جاذبه یا گرانش) ارزش کل‌ خدمات ­اکوسیستمی در طول30 سال مشهود است به‌نحوی‌که مرکز گراویتی 400 متر به سمت جنوب غربی جابجا شده است که با ایجاد عدم توازن در ارزش کل خدمات ­اکوسیستمی ناشی از مداخلة شدید انسانی، خسارتی معادل با 4/1 هزار میلیارد تومان را به­ همراه داشته ­است. نتایج پژوهش گواه این امر است که با احیاء جنگل‌های­ زاگرسی در مناطق جنوبی و شرقی استان و با افزایش ارزش ­خدمات ­اکوسیستمی به­ میزان 87 میلیارد تومان می ­توان زمینة بازگشت تعادل‌ و توازن‌ فضایی ارزش خدمات ­اکوسیستمی را به استان کهگیلویه ­و بویراحمد فراهم­ نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Regional balance and equivalence assessment using ecosystem services value and spatial monitoring of gravity centers

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mostafa Keshtkar 1
  • Naghmeh Mobarghei Dinan 2
  • Romina Sayahnia 3
  • Zahra Asadolahi 4

1 Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Environmental Science Research Institute, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Environmental Science Research Institute, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran.

3 Department of Planning and Designing the Environment, Environmental Science Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

4 Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Lorestan, Iran

چکیده [English]

During the last few decades, Land management decisions and consequently the land use\cover change in the Zagros biomes affected the ecosystem services value and their spatial distribution. The purpose of this study was to determine how land decisions affect spatial indicators of balance and equivalency of ecosystem services values during a period of 30 years (1990-2020) in Kohgiluyeh-Boboyrahmad province. Initially, LULC was extracted from Landsat and Sentinel satellite images using an object-oriented processing method. In addition, the benefits transfer method was applied to estimate ecosystem services' economic value, and the sensitivity indicator analysis process was applied to measure their uncertainty. Ultimately, by developing a gravity index and performing spatial statistical analyses in a 1km fishnet, we monitored the spatial balance and equivalence of ecosystem service value. The results show that the change in the ecosystem services value was mainly due to the intensity of unbridled man-made land (9.8%) and agriculture (6.3%) during the study period. The findings also show that the total value of ecosystem services has decreased by 3% over 30-years (152.6 Thousand Billion Tomans in 1990 to 148.5 Thousand Billion Tomans in 2020). As the sensitivity index is low, the modeling is reliable, accurate, and flexible with low uncertainty. Spatial analysis of hot spots shows a 2% decrease in areas with high potential for ecosystem services. On the other hand, the changes in the gravity centers the ecosystem service values in the period under study are substantial, as the center of gravity has moved 400 meters to the southwest over 30 years. Because of severe human intervention, the total ecosystem services value had been nonequalvalnce, resulting in 1.4 Thousand Billion Tomans in losses. Estimates in the research show restoration of oak forests in the southern and eastern regions of the province and increasing the value of services by 87 billion tomans can provide the necessary ground for the return of balance to the land.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Spatial statistics
  • Spatial decision making
  • Forest encroachment
  • Zagros biomes
  • Land use/cover change
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