تأثیر عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن: رهیافت گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته (GMM)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

در حالی که مطالعات متعددی بر شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر انتشار دی اکسیدکربن متمرکز شده ­اند، بررسی نقش عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی (EPU) بر کیفیت محیط زیست در ادبیات محیط زیست-انرژی کمتر مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در این راستا، هدف این مطالعه، بررسی چگونگی اثرگذاری عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی بر انتشار CO2 در گروه کشورهای در حال توسعه با بیشترین میزان آلایندگی می ­باشد. به‌علاوه، اثر تعدیل­ کنندگی عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی بر انتشار CO2 از کانال مصرف انرژی تجدیدپذیر و تجدیدناپذیر نیز مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج بیانگر وجود رابطه علّیت دو طرفه بین عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی و انتشار CO2 است. سپس برای برآورد مدل، روش گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته (GMM) برای حل مشکل درون­ زایی بکار گرفته شده است. نتایج حاصل از برآورد الگو بیانگر این است که افزایش عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی به تخریب کیفیت محیط زیست در نمونة مورد مطالعه منتهی شده است. به‌علاوه، نتایج نشان­ دهندة این است که یک درصد افزایش در مصرف انرژی تجدیدپذیر موجب کاهش انتشار CO2 به اندازة 0/026 درصد شده است. اگرچه که افزایش مصرف انرژی تجدیدناپذیر به اندازة یک درصد به افزایش انتشار CO2 به اندازة 0/98 درصد منتهی شده است. همچنین نتیجة اثر متقابل عدم قطعیت سیاست اقتصادی و مصرف انرزی تجدیدناپذیر گویای آن است که افزایش EPU به کاهش مصرف انرژی تجدیدناپذیر و در نتیجه کاهش انتشار CO2 در طول دورة 2004 تا 2020 منتهی شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Impact of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 emissions: approach of the generalized method of moments (GMM)

نویسنده [English]

  • Mahboubeh Jafari

Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

چکیده [English]

While a great number of researches have focused on identifying the factors affecting carbon emissions, the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on environmental quality has been less studied in the energy-environment literature. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate how economic policy uncertainty affects CO2 emission in the group of developing countries with the highest levels of pollution. In addition, the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 emissions from renewable and non-renewable energy channels has been studied.  The results show that there is bidirectional causality between economic policy uncertainty and CO2 emissions. Then, a panel data model by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is estimated to address the endogeneity problem. We find that increase in economic policy uncertainty has led to higher CO2 emissions. Furthermore, our findings underscore that 1 percent increase in the consumption of renewable energy has led to decrease CO2 emissions by 0.026 percent. In contrast, the consumption of nonrenewable energy has led to increase in CO2 emissions by 0.98 percent. Also, the results show that increase in economic policy uncertainty has led to a reduction in non-renewable energy consumption and thus a reduction in CO2 emissions during the period 2004 to 2020.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • CO2 emission
  • Economic policy uncertainty
  • Renewable energy
  • Nonrenewable energy
Adams, S., Adedoyin, F., Olaniran, E., Bekun, F.V., 2020. Energy consumption, economic policy uncertainty and carbon emissions; causality evidence from resource rich economies. Economic Analysis and Policy 68,179-190.
Adedoyin, F.F., Bekun, F.V., 2020. Modelling the interaction between tourism, energy consumption, pollutant emissions and urbanization: Renewed evidence from panel VAR. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 27(31), 38881-38900.
Adedoyin, F.F., Zakari, A., 2020. Energy consumption, economic expansion, and CO2 emission in the UK: The role of economic policy uncertainty. Science of the Total Environment 738, 140014
Adedoyin1, F. F., Satrovic, E., Kehinde, M.N., 2021. The anthropogenic consequences of energy consumption in the presence of uncertainties and complexities: Evidence from World Bank income clusters. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 29, 23264-23279.
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., Furceri, D., 2018. The world uncertainty index, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3275033 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3275033
Alam, M. S. Apergis, N., Paramati, S.R., Fang, J., 2021. The impacts of R&D investment and stock markets on clean-energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD economies. International Journal of Finance & Economics 26(4), 4979-4992.
Amin, A., Dogan, E., 2021. The role of economic policy uncertainty in the energy-environment nexus for China: Evidence from the novel dynamic simulations method. Journal of Environmental Management 292, 112865
Anser, M. K., Syed, Q. R., Lean, L. L., Alola, A.A., Ahmad, M., 2021a. Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk lead to environmental degradation? Evidence from emerging economies. Sustainability MDPI 13(11), 1-15.
Anser, M. K., Apergis, N., Syed, Q. R. 2021b. Impact of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 emissions: Evidence from top ten carbon emitter countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 28, 29369-29378.
 
Anwar, A., Younis, M., Ullah, I., 2020. Impact of urbanization and economic growth on
CO2 emission: A case of far east Asian countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17(7), 2531.
Apergis, N., Ozturk, I., 2015. Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Asian countries. Ecological Indicators 52, 16-22
Apergis, N., Payne, J.E., 2010. The emissions, energy consumption, and
growth nexus: Evidence from the commonwealth of independent states. Energy Policy 38(1), 650-655.
Arellano, M., Bond, S., 1991. Some tests of specification for panel data: Mont Carlo application to employment equation. The Review of Economic Studies 58(2), 277-297.
Arouri, M., Estay, C., Rault, C., Roubaud, D., 2016. Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US. Finance Research Letter 18, 136-141.
Aslan, A., Destek, M. A., Okumus, I., 2018. Bootstrap rolling window estimation approach to analysis of the Environment Kuznets Curve hypothesis: Evidence from the USA. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 25(3), 2402-2408.
Atsu, F., Adams, S., 2021. Energy consumption, finance, and climate change: Does policy uncertainty matter?. Economic Analysis and Policy 70, 490-501.
Bahrami, E., Behbudi, D., Salmani Bishak, M. R., Shokri, M., 2019. The impact of financial development and trade liberalization on CO2 emission in Iran. The Macro and Strategic Policies 7(1), 124-140 (In Persian).
Baloch, M.A., Mahmood, N., Zhang, J.W., 2019. Effect of natural resources,
renewable energy and economic development on CO2 emissions in BRICS countriesScience of the Total Environment 678, 632-638.
Begum, R.A., Sohag, K., Abdullah, S.M.S., Jaafar, M., 2015. CO2 emissions,
energy consumption, economic and population growth in Malaysia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 41, 594-601.
Behbudi, D., Fallahi, F., Barghi, E., 2010. The economic and social factors effecting on CO2 emission in Iran. Journal of Economic Research 45(1), 1-17. (In Persian)
Canh, N.P., Binh, N.T., Thanh, S. D., Schinckus, C., 2020. Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty. International Economics 161,159-172.
Chen, Y., Shen, X., Wang, L., 2021. The heterogeneity research of the impact of EPU on environmental pollution: Empirical evidence based on 15 countries. Sustainability 13, 4166
Danish, Baloch, M. A., Mahmood, N., Zhang, J. W., 2019. Effect of natural resources, renewable energy and economic development on CO2 emissions in BRICS countries. The Science of the Total Environment, 678, 632-638
Danish, Ulucak, R., 2020. Linking biomass energy and CO2 emissions in China using
dynamic autoregressive-distributed lag simulations. Journal of Cleaner Production 250, 119533.
Danish, Ulucak, R., Khan, S.U.D., 2020. Relationship between energy intensity and CO2
emissions: Does economic policy matter? Sustainable Development 28(5), 1457-1464.
Dehghan Shabani, Z., Jamshidi, N., Zehtab, M., 2022. The effect of development on the impact of human capital on CO2 emission in selected Asian countries. Agricultural Economics 15(4). (In Persian)
Dietz, T., Rosa, E. A., 1997. Environmental impacts of population and consumption. Environmentally Significant Consumption 94, 175-179.
Ding, Q., Khattak, S.I., Ahmad, M., 2020. Towards sustainable production and consumption: Assessing the impact of energy productivity and eco-innovation on consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions (CCO2) in G-7 nations. Sustainable Production and Consumption 27, 254-268.
Dogan, E., Ozturk, I., 2017. The influence of renewable and non-renewable
energy consumption and real income on CO2 emissions in the USA: Evidence from structural break tests. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 24(11), 10846-10854
Dogan, E., Seker, F., 2016. The influence of real output, renewable and non-renewable energy, trade and financial development on carbon emissions in the top renewable energy countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 60, 1074-1085
Dumitrescu, E.I., Hurlin, C., 2012. Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling 29, 1450-1460
Fotros, M.H., Ferdousi, M., Mehrpeyma, H., 2010.  An examination of energy intensity and urbanization effect on environmental degradation in Iran (A cointegration analysis). Journal of Environmental studies 37(60), 13-22. (In Persian)                                                                                                                                                                                 
Gkisakis, V., Volakakis, N., Kosmas, E., Kabourakis, E., 2020. Developing a decision
support tool for evaluating the environmental performance of olive production in
terms of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable Production and Consumption 24,
156-168.
Guidolin, M., La Ferrara, E., 2010. The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence
from asset market reactions. Journal of Peace Research 47(6), 671-684.
Hadri, K., Rao, Y., 2008. Panel stationary test with structural breaks. Oxford bulletin of Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 70 (2), 245-269.
Hashmi, R., Alam, K., 2019. Dynamic relationship among environmental regulation, innovation, CO2 emissions, population, and economic growth in OECD countries: A panel investigation. Journal of Cleaner Production 231, 1100-110
IEA, 2019. The report is available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outloo
k-2019.
IPCC, 2018. Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ◦C. IPCC, Geneva, www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.
IRENA, 2016. Renewable energy in cities, IRENA, Abu Dhabi.www.irena.org/publications/2016/Oct/Renewable-Energy-in-Cities.
IRENA, 2019. Climate change and renewable energy: National policies and the role of communities, cities and regions (Report to the G20 Climate Sustainability Working Group (CSWG)). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. https://www.irena.org/publications/2019/Jun/Climate-change-and-renewable-energy.
Jayanthakumaran, K., Verma, R., Liu, Y., 2012. CO2 emissions, energy consumption, trade and income: A comparative analysis of China and India. Energy Policy 42, 450-460.
Jiang, Y., Zhou, Z., Liu, C., 2019. Does economic policy uncertainty matter for carbon emission? Evidence from US sector level data. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26, 24380-24394.
Kang, W., Lee, K., Ratti, R.A., 2014. Economic policy uncertainty and firm level investment. Journal of Macroeconomics 39, 42-53.
Layani, G., Kargar Dehbidi, N., Fathi, F., 2020. Assess the effect of population structure on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran. Journal of Agriculture Economics Research 12(48), 83-102.
Le, T., Ha Chi, L., Taghizadeh-Hesary, F., 2020. Does financial inclusion impact CO2 emissions? Evidence from Asia. Finance Research Letters 34, 101451.
Lopez, L., Weber, S., 2017. Testing for Granger causality in panel data.
The Stata Journal 17 (4), 972-984.
Mohsin, M., Abbas, Q., Zhang, J., Ikram, M., Iqbal, N., 2019. Integrated effect
of energy consumption, economic development, and population growth on CO2 based environmental degradation: A case of transport sector. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26(32), 32824-32835.
Molaei, M., Kavoosi Kelashemi, M., Rafiee, H., 2010. Investigation of cointegration relationship between per capita GDP and per capita CO2 emission and existence of environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in Iran. Environmental Sciences 8(1), 205-261. (In Persian)                                                                                                                                                                                
Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., 2010. Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries. Energy Policy 38(1), 661-666.
Pirgaip, B., Dinçergok, B., 2020. Economic policy uncertainty, energy consumption and
carbon emissions in G7 countries: Evidence from a panel Granger causality analysis.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research 27(24), 1-17.
Sadorsky, P., 2009. Renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and oil prices in the G7 countries. Energy Economics 31(3), 456–462.
Shahbaz, M., Hye, Q. M. A., Tiwari, A.K., Leitão, N.C., 2013. Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 25, 109-121.
Sharifi Karimi, M., Hasanvand, A., 2020. Investigating the effect of training on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran by examining the environmental Kuznets curve. Journal of Natural Environment 73(4), 775-789. (In Persian)
Sun, X., Chen, X., Wang. J., Li, J. (2020). Multi-scale interactions between economic policy uncertainty and oil prices in time-frequency domains, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance 51,100854.
Suwanmanee, U., Bangjang, T., Kaewchada, A., Jaree, A., 2020. Greenhouse gas emissions and energy assessment of modified diesohol using cashew nut shell liquid and biodiesel as additives, Sustainable Production and Consumption 24, 232-253.
Syed, Q. R., Bouri, E., 2021. Impact of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 emissions in the US: Evidence from bootstrap ARDL approach. Journal of Public Affairs 22(3), e2613
Tam, P. S., 2018. Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty. Applied Economics 50(34-35), 3718-3734
Torabi, T., Khajooeipour, A., Tarighi, S., Pakravan, M. R., 2015. The effect of energy consumption, economic growth and international business on greenhouse gas emission in Iran. Quaterly Journal of Economic Modelling 9(29), 63-84 (In Persian). 
  Ulucak, R., Khan, S.U.D., 2020. Relationship between energy intensity and CO2 emissions: Does economic policy matter? Sustainable Development 28, 1457-1464.
Varahrami Tahamypur, M., Haqi, Z., 2016. The relationship between the release of CO2, value added and energy consumption of the power plant and refinery sectors. Environmental Sciences 14(2), 37-48. (In Persian)                                                                                                                                                                                    
Wang, Q., Xiao, K., Lu, Z., 2020. Does economic policy uncertainty affect CO2 Emissions?. Empirical evidence from the United States. Sustainability 12, 910       .
Zaidi, S. A. H., Hou, F., Mirza, F.M., 2018. The role of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption in CO2 emissions: A disaggregate analysis of Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 25(31), 31616-31629.
Zhang, C., Lin, Y., 2012. Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China. Energy Policy 49, 488-498.