نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

پیش‌بینی تغییرات عوامل محیطی اقلیمی منطقة زاگرس برای دوره‌های آتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران،کرج، ایران

2 گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

چکیده

انتشار غیر قابل کنترل گازهای گلخانه‌ای دراتمسفر به‌عنوان عامل اصلی و تهدید برای تغییر اقلیم مطرح شده است. این امر موجب کاهش بـارش‌هـا، افـزایش درجه حرارت و وقوع پیامدهای حدی اقلیمی در آینده است. با توجه به ویژگی‌های جوامع و محـدودیت‌هـا مـی‌توانـد پیامدهای زیا‌نباری به‌همراه داشته باشد. درک روند این تغییرات در انجام پروژه‌های تغییر اقلیمی در مقیاس جهانی برای فهم تغییرات اقلیمی آینده بسیار مهم است. در این پژوهش، از مدل اقلیمی ریزمقیاس نمایی آماری جهت ریز مقیاس‌سازی در مقیاس منطقه‌ای برگرفته از مدل‌های گردش جهانی جو استفاده شده است. این پژوهش در حوزة آبخیز کارون شمالی به بررسی روند مؤلفه‌های بارش و درجه حرارت میانگین، جهت آشکارسازی تأثیر تغییرات بر اقلیم منطقه، انجام شده است که نتایج در پیش‌بینی‌های انجام‌شده نشان می‌دهد، در بازة پیش‌بینی شده (2100-2020) با استفاده از دو سناریوی خوشبینانه و بدبینانه (RCP2.6 و RCP8.5) عملکـرد ارزیابی مـدل برای متغییر بارش (R=0/85, MAD= 0/58, MSE=0/73, RMSE=0/84) و برای متغییر درجه حرارت (R=0/93, MAD= 2/2, MSE=1/5, RMSE=1/3) می‌باشد. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش، متوسط بارش نسـبت بـه دورة مشـاهداتی تحت سناریو RCP2.6  به‌میزان 35/97 میلی‌متر افزایش و تحت سناریوی.RCP8.5 به مقدار 73/57 میلی‌متر افزایش خواهد داشت. همچنین درجه حرارت در هر دو سناریو RCP2.6 و  RCP8.5به‌ترتیب 3/01 و 4/79 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting changes in climatic environmental factors in the Zagros region for the future periods

نویسندگان [English]

  • Negar Salehi Hafshejani 1
  • Arash Malekian 1
  • Hosein Azarnivand 1
  • Ali Salajegheh 1
  • Rafat Zare 2
  • Bagher Shirmohammadi 1

1 Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Geosciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord , Iran

چکیده [English]

Uncontrolled emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been cited as a major reason and threat to climate change. Accordingly, it causes decreasing in precipitation, increasing of temperature, and the occurrence of extreme climatic consequences in the future. Due to the characteristics of communities and limitations, it has harmful consequences. Understanding the trend of these changes in global climate change projects is crucial to understanding future climate change. In this research, based on global atmospheric circulation models has been used a statistical model for regional downscaling. This study has been carried out in the North Kroon basin in order to study the trend of precipitation components and average temperature, to reveal the impact of influence on the region's climate, that the results have been shown in the forecast range of (2100 -2020). Using both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), the model evaluation performance for the precipitation variable (R = 0.85, MAD = 0.58, MSE = 0.73, RMSE = 0.84) and for the temperature variable (R = 0.93, MAD = 2.2, MSE = 1.5, RMSE = 1.3). All in all, the average precipitation will increase 35.97 mm compared to the observation period under RCP2.6 scenarios and will increase by 73.57 mm under RCP8.5 scenarios. Also, the temperature in both scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 will respectively increase by 3.01 and 4.79 ° C.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Greenhouse gases
  • General atmospheric circulation model
  • Statistical down scaling model
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 75، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 2
تیر 1401
صفحه 177-194