ارزیابی اثر تغییراقلیم بر متغیرهای اقلیمی با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG6 (مطالعة شهر بندرعباس)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی


گروه اقلیم شناسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران


یکی از چالش‌های قرن 21، تغییراقلیم است. تغییراقلیم می‌تواند بر متغیرهای اقلیمی تاثیر بگذارد که این بر آب ‌و ‌‌هوای سیاره تاثیر زیادی خواهد داشت. دما و بارش از عناصر اصلی شکل­گیری اقلیم می‌باشند، که تغییرات آن، ساختار آب و ‌هوایی هر محل را دگرگون می‌سازد. بنابراین در این تحقیق، تأثیر تغییراقلیم بر دما و بارش بندر­عباس با استفاده از مدل‌های گردش عمومی و مدل ریزمقیاس‌نمائی LARS-WG6 تحت سناریوهای RCP8.5 و RCP4.5 در دورة 2040-2020 بررسی شده و متغیرهای اقلیمی عنوان شده مقایسه و همبستگی مقادیر با استفاده از آزمون T استیودنت مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که دمای حداکثر و حداقل ماهانه به‌جز موارد محدود در هر چهار‌مدل و دو‌سناریو افزایش خواهند ‌داشت. بالاترین میزان افزایش دمای‌ حداقل و حداکثر به ترتیب در ماه ژوئن، مدل HadGEM2-ES، سناریوی RCP4.5 (3/65 درجه سانتی­گراد) و ژانویه مدل HadGEM2-ES، سناریوی RCP4.5 (2/48 درجه سانتی‌گراد) اتفاق‌ افتاده ‌است. این افزایش در میانگین سالانه و فصلی تکرار شده و به‌طور متوسط دمای‌حداقل و حداکثر سالانه به‌ترتیب 1 و 0/86 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش خواهند داشت. همچنین مدل­ ها به‌طورکلی افزایش بارش را در اکثر موارد پیش­ بینی کردند. بیشترین افزایش را مدل GFDL-CM3 سناریوی RCP4.5 (25/82درصد) در ماه مارس پیش­بینی کرده ­‌است. پیش ­بینی‌ها افزایش بارش سالانه و فصلی را نیز نشان دادند که میزان افزایش بارش در سناریوی RCP4.5 بیشتر از سناریوی RCP8.5  بوده ‌است. به‌طور کلی نتایج نشان داد که در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد تفاوت معنی‌داری بین داده‌های واقعی و داده‌های حاصل از مدل در مواردی وجود دارد. درنتیجه بندرعباس در آینده، افزایش بارش و دما را تجربه خواهد‌کرد که این می‌تواند خطر وقوع حوادثی طبیعی مانند سیل و تنش‌های گرمایی را در منطقه افزایش دهد. مدیریت این شرایط، ضروری بوده و نتایج مطالعه حاضر می‌تواند جهت اتخاذ راهکارهایی برای مشکلات مفید واقع شود.


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on Climatic Vriables Using the LARS-WG6 Model (Case Study: Bandar Abbas)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahranoo Monjazeb Marvdashti
  • Kamal Omidvar

Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran

چکیده [English]

One of the challenges issues of the 21st century is climate change. One of its effects could be a change in climatic parameters that will have a great impact on the planet's climate. Temperature and precipitation are the two most important elements for describing climate that their changes also alter the climatic structure of any region. It is very important to study the temperature and precipitation trends in different time and regions. Therefore, in this study, the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Bandar Abbas was investigated using four General Circulation Models (GCM) in the period 2020-2020. Moreover, LARS-WG6 statistical model was used for exponential microscale and two emission scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The results of evaluation models by Correlation Coefficient (R2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) showed that LARS-WG6 software is a appropriate tool for reproducing precipitation and temperature for the future. The highest correlation coefficient is belonged to the minimum temperature in GFDL-CM3 models (0.92), MIROC5 (0.98) and the maximum temperature of GFDL-CM3 model (0.95). The highest and lowest correlation belonged to the minimum temperature and precipitation, respectively. The forecasting results of temperature and precipitation except for a few cases show that the maximum and minimum of monthly temperatures will increase in all four models and two scenarios. Highest increase in minimum and maximum temperature is determined in June, HadGEM2-ES model, RCP4.5 scenario (3.65 ° C) and January, HadGEM2-ES model, RCP4.5 scenario (2.48 ° C), respectively. This increase is repeated in the annual and seasonal average.  The average of minimum and maximum annual temperatures will increase by 1 and 0.86 ° C, respectively. The results of the models generally predicted an increase in precipitation in most cases. The GFDL-CM3 forecast the biggest increase in the RCP4.5 scenario (25.82%) in March. Forecast data also showed an increase in annual and seasonal rainfall. The RCP4.5 scenario recorded more increase in precipitation than RCP8.5 scenario. According to these results, Bandar Abbas will face an increase in rainfall and temperature in the future. This increase in temperature and rainfall can have devastating consequences in various sectors such as agriculture, tourism, water source, environment and health. As a result of events such as heat stress and devastating floods, damage to plants and animals, the spread of diseases caused by these changes, as well as reduced visits to tourist areas such as Hengam Island are some of the consequences that Bandar Abbas will face in the next twenty years. Therefore, the results of this study can be useful in recognition and solving problems related to climate change. According to the results of this study, managers in different sectors can assume the necessary strategies to adapt and reduce the consequence effects of climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM)
  • Exponential microscale
  • Bandar Abbas
  • LARS-WG6
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