نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

اثرات بالقوه تغییر اقلیم بر توزیع جغرافیایی گونة جو پیازدار (Hordeum bulbosum L.) در زاگرس مرکزی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم مرتع، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه شهرکرد، شهرکرد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهرکرد، ایران

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم با تغییر فصل رشد یا تغییر الگو‌های دمایی که محرک تغییر چرخه حیات است، بر بسیاری از گیاهان و جانوران تأثیر می‌گذارد. گونه جو پیازدار (Hordeum bulbosum) با پراکندگی زیاد در زاگرس به ویژه زیر اشکوب‌های جنگل‌های بلوط غرب در ناحیه رویشی ایران و تورانی، گونه‌ای مهم برای احیا و اصلاح مراتع است. در این مطالعه اثر تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش جغرافیایی این گونه در استان چهارمحال و بختیاری واقع در زاگرس مرکزی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور، 73 نقطه حضور با استفاده از سیستم موقعیت‌یاب جهانی (GPS) ثبت و تعداد 11 متغیر محیطی شامل متغیرهای زیست‌اقلیمی، فیزیوگرافی و کاربری سرزمین در مدل­سازی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. مدل­سازی اجماعی شامل مدل شبکة عصبی مصنوعی، روش افزایشی تعمیم‌یافته، مدل‌خطی تعمیم‌یافته، تحلیل ممیزی انعطاف‌پذیر، جنگل تصادفی و رگرسیون چند‌متغیره تطبیقی انجام بود که در نهایت قابل اعتمادترین مدل، مدل جنگل‌تصادفی تعیین شد. همچنین پیش‌بینی برای سال‌ 2070 بر اساس سه سناریوی افزایش گازهای گلخانه‌ای SSP126، SSP370 و SSP585 و دو مدل گردش عمومی GFDL-ESM4 و MRI-ESM2-0 انجام شد. نتابچ نشان داد حدود 25 درصد منطقة مورد مطالعه در حال حاضر به‌عنوان رویشگاه مطلوب گونه شناسایی شده است و موثرترین متغیرها در پراکنش گونه عبارتند از: مجموع بارندگی سالانه، میانگین دمای پربارش‌ترین سه ماهه متوالی سال و مجموع بارندگی گرم‌ترین فصل سال. پیش‌بینی می‌شود که به‌واسطه تغییر اقلیم در مدل گردش عمومی GFDL-ESM4، 32/27 درصد (SSP370) تا 31/02درصد (SSP585) و برای مدل MRI-ESM2-0، 26/06درصد (SSP370) تا 31/68درصد (SSP585) در سال 2070 از رویشگاه مطلوب گونه کاسته شود. نقشه‌های رویشگاه‌ مطلوب امروزی و آینده که در این پژوهش تهیه شده‌اند، می‌تواند در تدوین و اجرای برنامه‌ها و طرح‌های مدیریتی و حفاظتی گونة مورد مطالعه مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Potential effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of the Hordeum bulbosum L. in the central Zagros region

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sedighe sadat Hosseini 1
  • Ali Tavili 2
  • Ali Asghar Naghipoor Borj 3
  • Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi 2

1 Ph. D. Student, ِDepartment of Range and watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord , Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran

چکیده [English]

Climate change affects many plants and animals by changing the growing season or temperature patterns that stimulate life cycle changes. Hordeum bulbosum is widely distributed in the Zagros region, especially under the storey of western oak forests in the vegetation zone of the Irano-Turanian region, and is considered as an important species for rangeland restoration and improvement. In this study, the effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of this species was assessed in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, located in central Zagros region. For this purpose, 73 points of presence were recorded using the global positioning system (GPS). In addition,11 environmental variables including bioclimatic, physiographic and landuse variables were used in the modeling process. Ensemble modeling include artificial neural network model, generalized boosting method, generalized linear model, flexible discriminant analysis, random forest and multivariate adaptive regression. Finally, the most reliable model was determined as the random forest model. The final forecast for 2070 is based on three scenarios of increasing greenhouse gases (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) as well as two general circulation models 9GFDL-ESM4 and MRI-ESM2-0). Findings showed that 25% of the study area is currently identified as suitable habitat for Hordeum bulbosum, and the most effective variables in species distribution are the Annual precipitation, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and Total rainfall is the hottest season of the year. It is also predicted that based on GFDL-ESM4 and MRI-ESM2-0 models, 27.32% (SSP370) - 31.02% (SSP585) and 26.06% (SSP370)-31.68% (SSP585) of the suitable habitats will be reduced, respectively, by 2070 due to climate change. The present and future habitat maps prepared in this study can be used for the development and implementation of the given species’ management and conservation plans.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province
  • Habitat suitability
  • Species distribution modeling
  • Stochastic forest model
  • General circulation model
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 74، شماره 4
اسفند 1400
صفحه 747-758