نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

پیش‌بینی تغییرات پوشش گیاهی و روند انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن بر اساس سناریوی پروژة REDD

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

2 گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات،تهران ایران

3 ادارة ژئودزی و ژئوداینامیک، سازمان نقشه‌برداری کشور (NCC)، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در طول زمان، الگوهای پوشش‌زمین و به دنبال آن کاربری اراضی دچار تغییر و دگرگونی اساسی می­ شوند. بنابراین برای استفاده بهینه از قابـلیت‌های منابع طبیعی، کسب اطـلاعات دقیق از پتانسیل­ های کاربری اراضی امری ضروری است. هدف اصلی پروژة REDD کاهش گازهای گلخانه ­ای (متان، دی‌اکسید کربن و دی اکسید نیتروژن) و افزایش ترسیب کربن در منطقه با تغییرات شدید کاربری اراضی است. بنابراین به‌منظور حفاظت از منطقة کجور، نه تنها شناخت مناسب از عوامل انسانی، بلکه نقش عوامل طبیعی از جمله پوشش‌گیاهی با اهمیت می ­باشد. بر اساس اهداف REDD، بررسی تغییرات پوشش جنگل در محدودة مورد مطالعه با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای لندست (4 ، 5 و 8) برای سال‌های 1364، 1369، 1374، 1379، 1389، 1394 و 1396 انجام گردید. در پایان‌ طبق روش (BioCF)  BioCarbon Fund و دورة پایه 1364-1396 مدل‌سازی تغییرات پوشش جنگل برای ٣٠ سال آینده (تا سال 1425) صورت گرفت و میزان انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن تا سال 1425 محاسبه گردید. نتایج حاصل از بررسی شاخص­ های پوشش گیاهی بیانگر بهبود وضعیت پوشش در بازه مورد بررسی بودند. بنابراین بهبود شرایط پوشش را می ­­توان به اعمال عملیات حفاظتی نسبت داد. براساس نتایج به‌دست آمده در سال 1425 طبقات پوشش اراضی فاقد پوشش، مساحتی در حدود  8 درصد، طبقه پوشش مرتعی 8/40 درصد و طبقة پوششی جنگل مساحتی معادل 15/1 درصد خواهند داشت. همچنین بین سال‌های 1396 تا 1425 در صورت عدم اجرای استراتژی، پروژه حدود 199569 هکتار(20درصد) پوشش جنگل تخریب می ­شود و 1995695 تن دی­اکسید کربن انتشار می­ یابد که در صورت اجرای پروژه REDD این میزان انتشار به 405512 تن دی ­اکسید کربن می ­رسد که می ­توان از انتشار 1590183 تن دی­ اکسید کربن معادل (42 درصد) به جو فوقانی زمین جلوگیری نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction Of Vegetation Changes And Carbon Dioxide Emission Trends Based On The Project Scenario REDD (Case Study: Central Alborz Protected Area)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yosef Darvishi 1
  • Milad Zarei 2
  • Mirkeivan Sayyarkavardi 3

1 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Environment, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Geodesy and Geodynamics, National Surveying Organization (NCC), Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Over time, land cover patterns and subsequent land uses change fundamentally. Therefore, in order to make the best use of natural resources, it is necessary to obtain accurate information about land use potential. The main goal of the REDD project is to reduce greenhouse gasses (methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide) and increase carbon sequestration in areas with high land use change. Therefore, to protect the Kojoor area, it is important to properly understand not only human factors, but also the role of natural factors such as vegetation. Based on the objectives of REDD, the study of forest cover changes in the study area was conducted using Landsat satellite images (4, 5 and 8) for the years 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2015 and 2017. Finally, using the BioCFon method (BioCF) and the base period 1364-1396, the change in forest cover was modeled for the next 4 years (until 1425) and the amount of carbon dioxide emissions was calculated until 2046. The results of examining the vegetation indices showed an improvement in cover condition over the study period. Therefore, the improvement in cover condition can be attributed to the application of protective measures. According to the results obtained in 2046, the land cover classes without land cover will have about 8%, the land cover class with pasture will have 40.8%, and the forest cover class will have an area of 51.1%. In addition, between 2017 and 1425, if the project strategy is not implemented, about 199569 hectares (20%) of forest area will be destroyed and 1995695 tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted, while this amount will be 405512 tons if the project REDD is implemented. The emission of 1590183 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (42%) into the upper atmosphere of the Earth can be prevented.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Vegetation Indices
  • Greenhouse Gasses
  • Land use
  • Remote Sensing
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 75، شماره 1
خرداد 1401
صفحه 119-135