نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

ارزیابی تأثیر سناریوهای مختلف مدیریتی بر منابع و مصارف حوضۀ آبریز قره‌چای با استفاده از مدل WEAP

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد رشته مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 استادیار بخش تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی کشاورزی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان آذربایجان غربی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، ارومیه، ایران

3 استادیار گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

4 دانشیار گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

طرح‌های توسعة منابع آب اثرهای محیط‌ زیستی زیادی بر جای می‌گذارند که تغییر رژیم طبیعی رودخانه و کاهش جریان سطحی پایین‌دست از مهم‌ترین آنهاست. به‌کارگیری مدل‌های هیدرولوژیک، امکان برنامه‌ریزی پایدار را در مدیریت منابع آب فراهم می‌کند. حوضۀ آبریز رودخانة قره‌چای واقع در حوضۀ دریاچه نمک در سال‌های اخیر تحت تأثیر فعالیت‌های انسانی قرار گرفته است. در پژوهش حاضر، مدل‌سازی رفتار هیدرولوژیک حوضۀ آبریز قره‌چای با استفاده از نرم‌افزار 21WEAP انجام گرفت. مدل برای دورۀ آماری بیست‌وپنج‌ساله از سال 1372 تا 1396 توسعه، واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی شد. برای واسنجی مدل، مقادیر مشاهداتی دبی رودخانۀ قره‌چای واقع در ایستگاه عسگرآباد در خروجی حوضۀ آبریز با مقادیر محاسباتی با استفاده از شاخص ضریب نش‌- ساتکلیف ارزیابی شد. برای واسنجی مدل یک دورۀ آماری سیزده‌ساله از 1372 تا 1385 در نظر گرفته شد. مقدار ضریب نش- ‌ساتکلیف برای دورۀ واسنجی 0/86 به‌دست آمد. برای اعتبارسنجی، دورۀ آماری یازده‌سالۀ 1385 تا 1396 در نظر گرفته شد. مقدار ضریب نش- ‌ساتکلیف برای دورۀ اعتبارسنجی 0/74به‌دست آمد. این نتایج نشان‌دهندۀ کارایی خوب مدل WEAP در شبیه‌سازی رفتار هیدرولوژیک حوضۀ آبریز قره‌چای است. پس از تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل پنج سناریوی مدیریتی، در نهایت سناریوی ترکیبی با شاخص اعتمادپذیری بیش از 95 درصد برای هر بخش مصرف و همچنین تأمین نیاز محیط‌ زیستی به‌عنوان سناریوی برتر شناخته شد. نتایج تحقیق بیانگر آن است که با اجرایی شدن این سناریو، روند نزول حجم آبخوان نسبت به شرایط فعلی تا حد بسیاری تعدیل خواهد شد و خروج از حالت بحرانی با اعمال اقدامات مدیریتی مناسب امکان‌پذیر خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the impacts of different management scenarios on the environmental sustainability of Gharachai watershed using the WEAP

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fateme Fathi ashtiani 1
  • Jamal Ahmadaali 2
  • Khaled Ahmadaali 3
  • Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi 4

1 M.Sc. student, Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Engineering Research Department, West Azarbaijan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Urmia, Iran

3 Assistant professor, Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

4 Associate professor, Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of natural resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

چکیده [English]

Water resources development projects have many environmental effects, the most important of which are changing the natural regime of the river and reducing the downstream flow. The use of hydrological models allows for sustainable planning in water resources management. The Qarachai River Basin in the Salt Lake Basin has been affected by human activities in recent years. In the present study, the hydrological behavior of Qarachai catchment was modeled using 21WEAP software. The model was developed, calibrated and validated for a 25-year statistical period (1993 to 2017). To calibrate the model, the observed discharge values of Qarachai River located at Asgarabad station (catchment outlet) were calculated with computational values using Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient index. A 13-year statistical period (from 1993 to 2006) was considered for model calibration. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for the calibration period was obtained 0.86. An 11-year statistical period (2006-2007) was considered for validation. The value of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for the validation period was obtained 0.74. These results indicate the good efficiency of the WEAP model in simulating the hydrological behavior of the Qarachai catchment. After analyzing five management scenarios, finally a combined scenario with a reliability index above 95% for each consumption sector as well as meeting the environmental needs was recognized as the top scenario. The results of the research indicate that with the implementation of this scenario, the downward trend of the aquifer compared to the current situation will be greatly adjusted and exit from the critical state will be possible by applying appropriate management measures.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Basin
  • Scenario
  • Sutcliffe Nash Coefficient
  • Object-Oriented Model
  • Integrated Management
  • Water Resources
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 74، شماره 3
آذر 1400
صفحه 537-553