نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

بررسی اثر صنعتی‌شدن و شهرنشینی بر مصرف انرژی با استفاده از رگرسیون آستانه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

مصرف سوخت­ های فسیلی و انتشار گازهای گلخانه ­ای، پیامدهای مختلف زیست‌محیطی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی را به‌دنبال دارد. نرخ شهرنشینی و رشد صنایع در کشورهای در حال توسعه، از آغاز قرن 21 رشد چشمگیری داشته و مصرف بالای سوخت­ های فسیلی و انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ ای را افزایش داده است. در این مطالعه عوامل مؤثر بر مصرف انرژی در دوره­ زمانی 1969 تا 2017 و با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون آستانه­ای به اجرا درآمد. متغیر نرخ رشد شهرنشینی به‌عنوان شاخصی از مهاجرت و نسبت ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت به تولید ناخالص داخلی کل به‌عنوان شاخصی از صنعتی شدن متغیرهای آستانه ­ای استفاده شدند. اثرات عوامل مختلف بر مصرف انرژی در آستانه­ های این دو متغیر، برآورد شد. نتایج آزمون، وجود دو آستانه برای هر یک از متغیرهای آستانه­ ای را تأیید نمود که در متغیر نرخ رشد شهرنشینی، مقادیر آستانه ­ای برابر 0/940و 1/416 درصد به ­دست آمد و برای متغیر نرخ صنعتی شدن این مقادیر آستانه ­ای برابر 3/687 و 3/808 درصد محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد که نرخ رشد شهرنشینی و جمعیت شهری، به‌ترتیب اثرات منفی و مثبت بر مصرف انرژی دارند. همچنین در شرایطی که رشد شهرنشینی و صنعتی‌شدن دامنه­ های میانه را طی می­کنند، پدیده­های اجتماعی و اقتصادی نظیر مهاجرت و تمرکز سیستم­های مالی، اداری و اعتباری موجب تشدید اثرات این عوامل را به دنبال خواهد داشت. با افزایش مصرف انرژی ناشی از دو عامل فوق می‌توان انتظار داشت، افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی به‌عنوان شاخصی اساسی از توسعه اقتصادی حاصل گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effect of industrialization and urbanization on energy consumption using threshold regression

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sahar Ghasemi 1
  • Ahmad Soltani-Zoghi 2

1 M.Sc. Student, Department of Energy Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

2 PhD student in Natural Resources and Environmental economics, Department of Agricultural Economic, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

چکیده [English]

Consumption of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions have had various environmental, social, and economic consequences. The rate of urbanization and industrial growth in developing countries has increased dramatically since the beginning of the 21st century, leading to the high consumption of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the factors affecting energy consumption from 1969 to 2017 were investigated using a threshold regression model. The Urban growth rate variable was used as an indicator of migration and the Ratio of value-added by the industrial sector to the total GDP as an indicator of the industrialization of threshold variables. Accordingly, the effects of different factors on energy consumption under the thresholds of these two variables were estimated. The test results confirmed the existence of two thresholds for each of the threshold variables. As for the Urban growth rate variable, threshold values ​​of 0.940 and 1.416 percent were obtained; and for the Industrialization rate variable, these threshold values were equal to 3.687 and 3.808 percent. The results show that the growth rate of urbanization and urban population has negative and positive effects on energy consumption, respectively. The results also revealed that in a situation where the growth of urbanization and industrialization of the middle ranges are slowing down, social and economic phenomena such as migration and the concentration of financial, administrative, and credit systems would intensify the effects of these factors. By increasing energy consumption due to the above two factors, we can expect an increase in GDP as a critical indicator of economic development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy
  • Development
  • Urbanization
  • Threshold regression
  • Industrialization

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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 74، شماره 4
اسفند 1400
صفحه 759-775