نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر کارامدی شبکۀ حفاظت ایران با تأکید بر خانواده گاوسان و گوزن‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری تنوع زیستی، گروه محیط زیست، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

2 استادیار گروه محیط زیست، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران

چکیده

از میان گونه‌های مختلف پستانداران، سه گروه همبوم از خانوادۀ گاوسانان شامل مرال – شوکا، آهو – جبیر و کل و بز – قوچ و میش همواره در برنامه‌های حفاظتی مورد توجه بوده‌اند. پژوهش حاضر با بهره‌گیری از مفهوم مدل‌سازی پراکنش گونه با استفاده از مدل بی‌نظمی بیشینه با هدف شناسایی زیستگاه‌های مطلوب برای این گونه‌ها به انجام رسید. براساس روی‌هم‌گذاری و تجمیع نقشه‌های مطلوبیت زیستگاه گونه‌ها، مناطق داغ تنوع زیستی گونه‌های مورد مطالعه در زمان حاضر شناسایی شد و اثر تغییر اقلیم بر آن تا سال 2050 میلادی ارزیابی شد. نتایج مقایسۀ مساحت مناطق مطلوب در حال حاضر و سال 2050 میلادی نشان داد که همۀ گونه‌ها به‌جز آهو و جبیر، در آینده با کاهش وسعت زیستگاه‌های مطلوب مواجه خواهند شد. دو گونۀ مرال و شوکا، به‌ترتیب با 70 و 61 درصد، بیشترین سطح از زیستگاه‌های مطلوب را تا سال 2050 از دست خواهند داد. ارزیابی کارایی سیستم حفاظتی کشور نشان داد که به‌ترتیب تنها 12 و 18 درصد از مناطق داغ تنوع زیستی (طبقات 4 و 5 غنای گونه‌ای) در حال حاضر و تا سال 2050 تحت پوشش سیستم حفاظتی کشور خواهند بود. به این ترتیب، پژوهش حاضر با شناسایی مناطق داغ تنوع زیستی، به‌عنوان ابزاری مناسب و کاربردی برای برنامه‌ریزی هدفمند حفاظتی در حال حاضر و آینده کاربرد خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the conservation network with respect to the Bovidae and Cervidae family in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahya Khosravi 1
  • Atefeh Chamani 2
  • Rouhollah Mirzaei 3

1 Ph.D student in Biodiversity, Environmental Science Department, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor,,Environmental Sciences Department, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Isfahan, Iran.

3 Associate Professor,,Department of Environmental Sciences , Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran

چکیده [English]

Among the various species of mammals, three guilds of the Bovidae and Cervidae family, including red deer – roe deer, goitered gazelle – chinkara, and wild goat – mouflon have always been considered as target species in conservation programs. However the impacts of climate change on the effectivness of the conservation areas (CAs) of Iran is poorly understood. The current research using Speceis Distribution Model (SDM) based on MaxEnt model aims at identifying suitable habitats and hotspot areas for these species in the current time and evaluate the impact of climate changes by 2050. Our results showed that all models obtained AUC > 0.8 revealing proper predictive performances. The comparison of the area of suitable habitats for the current time and 2050 showed that all species, except for chinkara and goitered gazelle, will face a reduction in the area of suitable habitats in the future. Among the speceis roe deer and red deer will experience the greatest habitat loss, 70% and 61%, respectively. The evaluation of the effectiveness of the CAs to cover hotspot areas, Class 4 and Class 5 of speceis richness, revealed that only 12% and 18% of hotspots will be covered by the conservation network in the current time and 2050, respectively. Therfore, the present study by identifying hotspots of these species could be considered as an operative tools for the conservation planning of in the current time and future. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Distribution modelling
  • Conservation areas
  • Climate change
  • Bovidae and Cervidae family
  • Conservation planning
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 74، شماره 2
شهریور 1400
صفحه 208-223