نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

تاثیر عوامل اقلیمی و اقتصادی بر صنعت گردشگری در مناطق مختلف ایران (با روش حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا و گشتاور تعمیم یافته در دوره زمانی 1385-1397)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه س وب

3 استادیار گروه جغرافیا طبیعی- اقلیم شناسی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

4 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

چکیده

صنعت توریسم یکی از بزرگترین صنایع خدماتی و از مهم ترین فعالیت‌های اقتصادی در جهان به شمار می‌رود. مطالعات زیادی در رابطه با این موضوع انجام شده که اغلب این مطالعات به بررسی عوامل اقلیمی و اقتصادی به صورت مجزا پرداخته اند. هدف این پژوهش بررسی تاثیر همزمان عوامل اقلیمی واقتصادی بر توریسم و گردشگری در مناطق مختلف ایران است. به این منظور داده‌های پانل برای 30 استان ایران در طی سال های 1385 تا 1397 جمع آوری شده است. کشور ایران بر اساس طبقه‌بندی اقلیم‌شناسی به 7 منطقه دسته بندی شده و هر منطقه به صورت جداگانه بررسی شده است. در این مطالعه با توجه به هم انباشتگی داده‌ها برای هر منطقه از روش‌های DOLS یا GMM استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که در بسیاری از استان‌ها متغیرهای اقلیمی در کنار متغیر اقتصادی اثر معنی‌داری بر گردشگری دارند. در واقع در تمامی استان‌هایی که ارزش افزوده استان‌ها معنی دار شده است افزایش ارزش افزوده منجر به افزایش تعداد گردشگران در بلند مدت می‌شود. نتایج برای متغیرهای اقلیمی بیانگر آن است که با افزایش دما تعداد گردشگران در استان‌های استان‌های خراسان رضوی، خراسان جنوبی، تهران، سمنان، اصفهان، کرمان، مرکزی، سیستان و بلوچستان، یزد، قم، بوشهر، هرمزگان، خوزستان افزایش می‌یابد و همچنین با افزایش میزان بارندگی در فصول پاییز و زمستان استان‌های مازندران و گیلان جز استان‌هایی هستند که تعداد گردشگران در این فصول بیشتر است و استان‌های فارس، ایلام، لرستان، کهکیلویه و بویراحمد تعداد گردشگران کمتری را در این فصول خواهند داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of climatic and economic factors on the tourism industry in different regions of Iran (with the method of Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and Generalized Method of Moment in the period 2008-2018)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amir Dadrasmoghadam 1
  • seyedmahdi Hosseini 2
  • Mohsen Hamideyanpour 3
  • Mahsa Sayahi 4

1 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economic. University of Sistan and Baluchestan

2 Assistant Professor of Agriculture Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan

3 Assistan Professor, University of Sistan and Baluchestan

4 PhD student Agricultural economic. University of Sistan and Baluchestan

چکیده [English]

The tourism industry is one of the largest service industries and one of the most important economic activities in the world. There are many studies on this subject, most of which have studied the climatic and economic factors seperately. In this study, we want to examine the simultaneous effects of economic and climatic factors on tourism. In this regard, panel data was collected for 30 provinces of Iran during the years 2006 to 2018. These provinces were classified in seven regions and each region is individually examined. Given the cointegration analysis results, we were using panel data or DOLS or GMM procedures, for each region. In general, according to the results, in many provinces, climate variables have a significant effect on tourism along with economic variables. In fact, in all provinces where provincial value added has been significant, value added leads to an increase in the number of tourists in the long run. Results for climate variables show that with increasing temperature, the number of tourists in provinces of Khorasan Razavi, South Khorasan, Tehran, Semnan, Isfahan, Kerman, Markazi, Sistan and Baluchestan, Yazd, Qom, Bushehr, Hormozgan, Khuzestan provinces increases. The increase in raining in the autumn and winter seasons in the provinces of Mazandaran and Gilan are among the provinces with the highest number of tourists and Fars, Ilam, Lorestan, Kohkiloyehr and Boyer Ahmad provinces will have fewer tourists in these seasons.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • tourism
  • climate
  • economic
  • GMM. DOLS
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 74، شماره 1
خرداد 1400
صفحه 41-54