نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

مدل‌سازی و آنالیز حساسیت پروژه REDD در راستای کاهش انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن (مطالعه موردی: جنگل‌های هیرکانی استان گلستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

2 دانشگاه لرستان

چکیده

با توجه به روند افزایشی تخریب جنگل‌های هیرکانی و سهم قابل توجه ایران در انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن، پروژه کاهش انتشارات ناشی از جنگل‌زدایی و تخریب جنگل (REDD) در نه گام و دو سناریو در استان گلستان اجرا شد. در سناریوی مبنا روند تغییرات گذشته کاربری اراضی ادامه یافت. به این منظور تغییرات کاربری اراضی با استفاده از تصاویر لندست سال‌های 1363، 1387و 1397 بررسی شد. مدل‌سازی پتانسیل انتقال با استفاده از شبکه عصبی پرسپترون چندلایه انجام شد و تغییرات کاربری آتی تحت سناریوی مبنا در بازه 30 ساله (1427-1397) پیش‌بینی گردید و میزان انتشار گاز CO2 برآورد شد. در سناریوی پروژه بخشی از فعالیت‌های جنگل‌زدایی کنترل و با توجه به اهمیت نرخ موفقیت پروژه و نرخ تراوش در انتشار گاز CO2، با تغییر نرخ تراوش (10، 20، 30، 40 و 50 درصد) و نرخ موفقیت پروژه (90، 80، 70، 60 و 50 درصد) اثربخشی سناریوی پروژه بررسی شد. در این راستا، منطقه مورد مطالعه بر اساس رویکرد برآورد چندمعیاره به دو بخش منطقه پروژه و منطقه تراوش تقسیم گردید. بر اساس نتایج در بهترین حالت (نرخ موفقیت و نرخ تراوش 90 و 10 درصد)، میزان انتشار گاز CO2 در منطقه پروژه از میزان 3/573968 تن در سناریوی مبنا در سال 1398 به میزان 5/66265 تن در سال 1427رسید. در بدترین حالت (نرخ موفقیت و نرخ تراوش 50 درصد) نیز نسبت به سناریوی مبنا کاهش انتشار مشاهده شد. این در حالی است که اگر هیچ رویکرد مدیریتی جهت حفاظت پهنه‌های جنگلی در استان گلستان اجرا نگردد، میزان انتشار گاز CO2 در انتهای سال 1427 بمیزان 9/662655 تن خواهد رسید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of REDD Project to Reduce CO2 Emissions (Case Study: Hyrcanian Forests, Golestan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamidreza Kamyab 1
  • Zahra Asadolahi 2

1 Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

2 Lorestan University

چکیده [English]

Due to the increasing trend of Hyrcanian deforestation and Iran's significant proportion in CO2 emissions, the Reduction of Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) emission project was implemented in nine steps and two scenarios in Golestan province. In the baseline scenario it was assumed that the trend of past land use changes will continue. In this regard, land use changes were studied using Landsat images of 1984, 2008 and 2018. Transition potential modeling was performed by Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. Then future land use change was predicted under the baseline scenario over a period of 30 years (2018-2048) and CO2 emissions were estimated. In this regard, study area was divided into the project area and leakage belt based on the Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) derived forest suitability map. In the project scenario, some of deforestation activities were controlled. Due to the importance of the project success rate and leakage rate in CO2 emissions, the effectiveness of the project scenario was assessed by changing the leakage rate (10, 20, 30, 40 and 50%) and the project success rate (90, 80, 70, 60 and 50%). Based on the results in the best state (success and leakage rates of 90 and 10% respectively), the amount of CO2 emissions within the project area decreased from 573968.3 tons in 2018 year under the baseline scenario to 66265.5 tons in 2047 year. Evan in the worst state (success and leakage rate of 50% respectively), a decrease in emission was observed compared to the baseline scenario. If any management approach isn't implemented to conserve forests in Golestan province, the amount of CO2 emissions will increase to 662655.9 tons in the year 2047.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Land Use Change
  • Deforestation
  • Climate Change
  • Global Warming
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 74، شماره 1
خرداد 1400
صفحه 111-124