نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

شناسایی سواحل در معرض بالا آمدن آب دریا تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم - مطالعه نمونه: سواحل جنوب ایران در کرانه دریای عمان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

2 استاد گروه مهندسی محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

3 استاد، گروه محیط زیست و شیلات، دانشگاه گرگان

4 استاد گروه احیا مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

5 محقق گروه علوم زمین و جغرافیا دانشگاه هلسینکی فنلاند

6 استاد برجسته گروه علوم زمین و سیارات دانشگاه کالیفرنیا- سنکروز آمریکا

چکیده

بالا آمدن سطح آب دریا یکی از اثرات مستقیم و مورد پذیرش تغییر اقلیم عصر نوین است و اغلب به آن به عنوان یکی از دلایل عمده نگرانی در مورد تغییر اقلیم استناد می گردد. در طول 26 سال گذشته و مطابق با داده های ارتفاع سنجی ماهواره ای، سطح جهانی آب دریا با نرخ میانگین 3/3 میلی متر در سال بالا آمده است. این نرخ همچنان در حال افزایش است و تا انتهای قرن 21 ام نیز بالا آمدن میانگین جهانی سطح آب دریا ادامه خواهد داشت. بالا آمدن سطح آب دریا تغییرات مهم و اغلب ناسازگاری بر شکل زمین، اکوسیستم ها، مصب ها، آبراهه ها، جمعیت انسانی و فعالیت های ناحیه ساحلی برجای خواهد گذارد. شناسایی مناطق ساحلی در معرض آبگرفتگی و تدوین مدیریت سازگاری متناسب می تواند موجب کاهش پی آمدهای تغییر اقلیم در این مناطق گردد. در پژوهش حاضر، پهنه های در معرض بالا آمدن سطح آب دریا در سواحل مکران- شهرستان جاسک به طول 292 کیلومتر تحت سناریوهای ارائه شده توسط هیات بین دولتی تغییر اقلیم (IPCC) و با استفاده آخرین نسخه مدل Bathtub، ارائه شده توسط NOAA، مورد شناسایی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد در اثر حداکثر میزان بالا آمدن سطح آب دریا تحت سناریوهای RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP6 (با نرخ افزایش برابر) و RCP8.5، به ترتیب 299 ، 334 و 449 کیلومترمربع از سواحل مورد مطالعه تا سال 2100 به طور دائم به زیر آب خواهند رفت. روی هم گذاری لایه های کاربری و پوشش سرزمین منطقه ساحلی و پهنه های در معرض بالا آمدن سطح آب دریا نیز نشان داد بخش هایی از بندر استراتژیک جاسک، بندر کوه مبارک، اکوسیستم های با اهمیت ساحلی مانند مانگروها و نیز مناطق هدف برای برنامه های کنونی و آتی توسعه سواحل مکران، در معرض آبگرفتگی دائمی قرار خواهند گرفت. از این رو ارزیابی آسیب پذیری کمی و کیفی این مناطق در برابر بالا آمدن سطح آب دریا و تدوین برنامه مدیریت سازگاری با هدف کاهش پی آمدهای تغییر اقلیم بر جوامع انسانی و طبیعی منطقه از یک سو و اجرای برنامه های توسعه در مناطق ساحلی به شکل پایدار از سوی دیگر، ضرورتی اجتناب ناپذیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Coastal Exposure to Sea-Level Rise under Climate Change Scenarios A Case Study: Southern Coast of Iran along the Sea of Oman

نویسندگان [English]

  • Lida Davar 1
  • Afshin Danehkar 2
  • Abdolrassoul Salmanmahini 3
  • hosein Azarnivand 4
  • Babak Naimi 5
  • Gary Griggs 6

1 PhD Candidate, Department of Environment Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

3 Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, Gorgan University, Iran

4 Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid & Mountain Provinces, University of Tehran, Iran

5 Researcher, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Finland

6 Distinguished Professor, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, USA

چکیده [English]

Human-induced climate change has had worldwide impacts on coastal human and natural systems. Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is one of the biggest challenges human civilization is facing in coastal regions today. Over the past 25 years of satellite altimetry, global sea level rose at an average rate of 3.3 mm/yr. (13 in. /century), but this rate is accelerating. Global mean sea-level rise (SLR) will continue during the 21st century, very likely at an increased rate. Climate related SLR has major adverse effects on coastal systems. Assessing the vulnerability of individual coastal areas to future inundation is essential in order to develop adaptive management strategies to cope with the future impacts of sea-level rise. In this vulnerability assessment, exposure of the 292 km coast of southern Iran (Jask County) along the sea of Oman has been studied. To identify areas that would be inundated by future sea-level rise we applied NOAA’s modified bathtub model, and used high estimates of projected global sea-level rise for all RCP scenarios for the year 2100 from the IPCC Fifth Assessment. The results of inundation mapping indicate that under RCP 2.5 scenario (with 0.55 m of SLR) about 299 sq. km. would be inundated. For RCP 4.5 and 6 (with 0.63 m of SLR), about 334 sq. km., and under extreme sea- level rise (RCP 8.5 and 0.82 m SLR) about 449 sq. km. will be inundated. In addition the results indicate although only 1% of the entire coastal area falls into the urban/built category, this includes the most populous city in the county, 2 strategic ports, as well as an airport and industrial zones. Assessing the socio-economic and ecological vulnerability of coastal areas subject to future sea-level rise can assist government officials, managers or decision makers in developing appropriate action plans to adapt to and mitigate sea-level rise impacts. This is particularly timely along the southern coast of Iran where development is in an early stage.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Climate change"
  • "Sea- level rise"
  • "Coastal vulnerability"
  • "Adaptive Management
  • "."Jask"
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 74، شماره 1
خرداد 1400
صفحه 55-68