نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

بررسی ریسک وقوع آتش‌سوزی عرصه های طبیعی استان کردستان به کمک تکنیک شاخص آماری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران.

2 گروه مهندسی مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

چکیده

آتش سوزی به‌عنوان یکی از عوامل اصلی اختلال و تغییر در اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی محسوب می‌شود. شناسایی عوامل مؤثر در وقوع آتش‌سوزی و تهیه الگوی مکانی خطر آن یکی از ابزارهای اساسی جهت دست یابی به راهکارهای کنترل و مقابله با آتش‌سوزی است. آمارها حاکی از وقوع 1124 مورد آتش سوزی و سوختن 7364 هکتار از جنگلها و مراتع استان کردستان تنها بین سالهای 1385 تا 1394 هستند. لذا در این پژوهش اقدام به تهیه نقشه ریسک خطر آتش‌سوزی در عرصه-های طبیعی استان کردستان با استفاده از روش شاخص آماری (SI) و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) شد. در این پژوهش، به‌منظور ترسیم نقشه خطر آتش‌سوزی از 6 پارامتر شامل 3 متغیر طبیعی درصد شیب، جهت شیب، ارتفاع و سه متغیر انسانی فاصله از نزدیکترین روستا، فاصله از نزدیکترین جاده و فاصله از نزدیکترین زمین کشاورزی استفاده شد. از 1124 مورد آتش سوزی، 70 درصد داده‌ها (787 مورد) برای مدلسازی و 30 درصد (337 مورد) برای صحت سنجی مدل استفاده گردید. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که حدود 50 درصد از مساحت استان کردستان (14400 کیلومترمربع) در کلاس خطر آتش‌سوزی زیاد و خیلی زیاد قرار دارند. همچنین یافته‌های حاکی از دقت بالای مدل شاخص آماری در شناسایی مناطق دارای خطر آتش‌سوزی با دقت 5/93 درصد (315 مورد از 337 مورد آتش سوزی) بود

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Fire risk assessment of Kurdistan province natural areas using statistical index method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Negar Hedayati 1
  • Hamed Joneidi 1
  • Shirko Ebrahimi Mohammadi 2

1 Department of Rangeland and watershed management, faculty of Natural resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.

2 Department of Range and Watershed engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

چکیده [English]

Fire is considered as one of the main causes of disruption and change in natural ecosystems. Identifying the effective factors in the occurrence of a fire and providing a spatial pattern of its risk is one of the basic tools for achieving fire control. The statistics showed that 1124 incidents of fire caused to burning of 7364 hectares of forests and rangelands in Kurdistan province, between 2006 and 2015. Therefore, in this research, a fire risk map was developed in natural areas in Kurdistan province using statistical index method (SI) and Geographic Information System (GIS). In this study, in order to prepare a fire hazard map, six parameters including three natural variables: slope percentage, aspect, elevation and three human variables, distance from the village, distance from the road and distance from the agricultural land were used. From all of 1124 fire cases, 70% of the data (787 cases) were used for modeling and 30% (337 cases) were used for model verification. The results showed that about 50% of the area of Kurdistan province (14400 km2) is in high and very high fire hazard classes. Also, findings showed the high accuracy of the statistical index method in identifying areas with a fire hazard with a precision of 93.5% (315 out of 337 cases of fire).

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • statistical Index
  • Fire
  • forest and rangeland
  • GIS
  • Kurdistan province
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 72، شماره 3
مهر 1398
صفحه 403-416