عنوان مقاله [English]
It is obvious that tourism industry affects comprehensive development including the economic development. In this regard, using futures studies are an appropriate tool for predicting the future of tourism and therefore the orientation of management practices at the present time. This study was conducted to find drivers of development natural and cultural tourism by descriptive- analytical method in Sistan region. For this purpose, at first, 100 drivers as a barrier to tourism development in the region were identified using the fieldwork, literature review, and brainstorm methods. Subsequently, drivers were arranged in five domains and, if necessary, corrected or merged. After that, the most important drivers were chosen using Delphi method which contains 55 variables in the infrastructural, political, institutional, social and natural domains. Again, these variables were screened using Structural Analysis to get influential drivers with high influence and low dependence capacity. The state of dispersion of variables in the dependence and influence axes showed that the system is stable in both direct and indirect methods of Structural Analysis. The political factor and then the institutional factor with six and four variables in the direct method and five and two variables in the indirect method were identified as the most important factors in the undeveloped tourism industry in Sistan respectively. Among the influential drivers, weak planning, lack of long-term planning, and lack of integrated management include 6.16, 5.98, and 5.36 percent of total values respectively, and were identified as the most influence drivers. The lack of investment in the region has also been identified as a key dependent driver to assess the tourism status in Sistan.