نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

تعیین پیشرانهای توسعه گردشگری طبیعی و فرهنگی در سیستان با روش ‏تجزیه و تحلیل ساختاری ‏

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

2 گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران‏

چکیده

جایگاه صنعت گردشگری در توسعه همه‌جانبه ازجمله توسعه اقتصادی برکسی پوشیده نیست. در این راستا استفاده از روش‌های آینده ‏پژوهی ابزار مناسبی جهت پیش‌بینی آینده گردشگری و بنابراین جهت‌گیری اقدامات مدیریتی در حال حاضر هستند. مطالعه حاضر با ‏هدف تعیین پیشران‌های توسعه در صنعت گردشگری به روش توصیفی- تحلیلی در منطقه سیستان انجام شد. به این منظور در ابتدا به ‏روش میدانی، مرور منابع ‏و طوفان فکری، 100 پیشران که وجودشان در منطقه مانع توسعه گردشگری است، شناسایی شد و در ادامه ‏پیشران‌ها در پنج حوزه مرتب و در صورت ‏لزوم، اصلاح و یا درهم ادغام شدند. پس‌ازآن به روش دلفی مهم‌ترین آنها انتخاب شد که شامل ‏‏55 پیشران در حوزه‌های زیرساختی- رفاهی، ‏سیاسی، نهادی، اجتماعی و طبیعی است. مجدداً این پیشران‌ها با استفاده از تحلیل ‏ساختاری جهت به دست آوردن پیشران‌هایی با ‏بیشترین تأثیرگذاری و کمترین تأثیرپذیری غربال شدند. وضعیت پراکندگی پیشران‌ها ‏در محورهای تأثیرپذیری و ‏تأثیرگذاری در هر دو روش مستقیم و غیرمستقیم تحلیل ساختاری نشان داد که سیستم از پایداری برخوردار ‏است. مهم‌ترین عوامل توسعه‌نیافتگی صنعت گردشگری ‏در سیستان، عوامل سیاسی و نهادی به ‏ترتیب با شش و چهار پیشران در روش ‏مستقیم و پنج و دو پیشران در روش غیرمستقیم به‌دست‌آمد و مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های اثرگذار، ‌برنامه‌ریزی ضعیف، فقدان برنامه‌ریزی ‏بلندمدت و فقدان مدیریت یکپارچه بوده که به ترتیب 16/6، 98/5 و 36/5 درصد از کل امتیازات را به خود اختصاص داده‌اند. پیشران ‏عدم ‏سرمایه‌گذاری در منطقه نیز به‌عنوان پیشران وابسته شاخص جهت نشان‌دادن وضعیت گردشگری در منطقه شناسایی شد. ‏

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining drivers of natural and cultural tourism development by ‎Structural Analysis in Sistan

نویسندگان [English]

  • Malihe Erfani 1
  • Yaser Mircherghkhani‎ 2

1 Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Zabol, Iran

2 Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Zabol

چکیده [English]

It is obvious that tourism industry affects comprehensive development including the ‎economic development. In this regard, using futures studies are an appropriate tool for ‎predicting the future of tourism and therefore the orientation of management practices at ‎the present time. This study was conducted to find drivers of development natural and ‎cultural tourism by ‎ descriptive- analytical method in Sistan region. For this purpose, at ‎first, 100 drivers as a barrier to tourism development in the region were identified using ‎the fieldwork, literature review, and brainstorm methods. Subsequently, drivers were ‎arranged in five domains and, if necessary, corrected or merged. After that, the most ‎important drivers were chosen using Delphi method which contains 55 variables in the ‎infrastructural, political, institutional, social and natural domains. Again, these variables ‎were screened using Structural Analysis to get influential drivers with high influence and ‎low dependence capacity. The state of dispersion of variables in the dependence and ‎influence axes showed that the system is stable in both direct and indirect methods of ‎Structural Analysis. The political factor and then the institutional factor with six and four ‎variables in the direct method and five and two variables in the indirect method were ‎identified as the most important factors in the undeveloped tourism industry in Sistan ‎respectively. Among the influential drivers, weak planning, lack of long-term planning, ‎and lack of integrated management include 6.16, 5.98, and 5.36‎‏ ‏percent of total values ‎respectively, and were identified as the most influence drivers. The lack of investment in ‎the region has also been identified as a key dependent driver to assess the tourism status in ‎Sistan. ‎

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Tourism Development
  • Structural analysis
  • Sistan region
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 72، شماره 1
فروردین 1398
صفحه 97-111