نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

اثر آزاد سازی تجاری بر انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای در ایران: کاربرد رهیافت همجمعی نامتقارن غیرخطی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه شیراز- دانشکده کشاورزی- بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی

2 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

در این مطالعه با استفاده از رهیافت خود رگرسیو با وقفه‌های گسترده غیر خطی (NARDL) رابطه همجمعی نامتقارن غیر خطی میان آزادسازی تجاری و انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای در ایران مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. همچنین از میزان انتشار گاز متان بعنوان شاخص انتشار گاز های گلخانه ای استفاده شد. برای این منظور داده‌های سالانه دوره 1982 الی 2013 بکار گرفته شد. نتایج آزمون کرانه نشان داد که رابطه همجمعی میان متغیرهای مورد استفاده در مدل شامل انتشار سرانه گاز متان، آزادسازی تجاری، مصرف سرانه انرژی و تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه وجود دارد. بعلاوه، بررسی ها نشان دادکه رابطه میان انتشار گاز متان و آزادسازی تجاری در بلند مدت نامتقارن است، اما در کوتاه مدت این رابطه متقارن می‌باشد. برآوردهای بلند مدت نشان داد که شوک های مثبت و منفی ناشی از آزادسازی تجاری به ترتیب منجر به 22/0 و 09/ درصد افزایش انتشار گاز متان در ایران می‌شود. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که در کوتاه و بلند مدت رابطه N-شکل میان تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه و انتشار گاز متان وجود دارد. همچنین مصرف سرانه انرژی اثر مثبت و معنی داری بر انتشار گاز متان دارد و یک درصد افزایش در مصرف سرانه انرژی منجر به 75/0 درصد افزایش در انتشار گاز متان می شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Trade Liberalization on Greenhouse Gas Emission in Iran: Application of Nonlinear Asymmetric Cointegration Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohhammad Hassan Tarazkar 1
  • Fatemeh Fathi 2

1 assistant professor of agricultural economics, Shiraz university

2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

چکیده [English]

This paper applies nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to investigate the nonlinear asymmetric cointegration relationships between trade liberalization and greenhouse gas emission (GHG) in Iran. Also, the methane gas emission per capita was used as greenhouse gas emission index. To this end, annual data from 1982 to 2013 was used. The bounds test of the NARDL specification suggests the presence of co-integration among the variables, which include the methane emission per capita, trade liberalization, energy consumption per capita and GDP per capita. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that there is a long-run asymmetric relationship between trade liberalization and methane emission in Iran. But, the short-run relationship is symmetric. The long-run estimation showed that the positive and negative shocks arising from trade liberalization increase methane emissions by 0.22 and 0.9 percent, respectively. The empirical results revealed that the relationship between methane emission and GDP per capita in long and short run is N-shaped and statistically significant. Also, energy consumption has a significant positive effect on methane emissions and 1 percent increase in per capita energy consumption lead to 0.75 percent growth in methane gas emission.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade Liberalization
  • Methane Gas Emission
  • Asymmetric Effects
  • NARDL
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 72، شماره 1
فروردین 1398
صفحه 85-96