نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

توسعه مدلی برای برنامه ریزی توسعه با تأکید بر پارامتر های محیط زیست، انرژی و اقتصاد مبتنی بر روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و برنامه ریزی آرمانی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مدیر گروه مهندسی صنایع، مدیر فناوری اطلاعات دانشگاه قم، مدیر مسئول دوفصلنامه مدیریت مهندسی و رایانش نرم

2 کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی صنایع دانشگاه قم

چکیده

توسعه پایدار متوازن، نیازمند به کارگیری سیاست‌های مناسب و یکپارچه، در چندین بخش اقتصاد، محیط زیست، انرژی و معیارهای اجتماعی است. برخی از اهداف کلان هر بخش با سایر بخش ها در تناقض است. برنامه ریزی آرمانی از زیر شاخه‌های آنالیز تصمیم گیری چند معیاره، یکی از تکنیک‌های رایج مطالعه تصمیمات با اهداف متناقض است. در این پژوهش، یک مدل برنامه ریزی آرمانی وزن دهی شده پیشنهاد گردیده است که اهداف نرخ رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی، مصرف انرژی و انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای را با توجه به مرتبط بودن به یکدیگر جهت تخصیص کار آمد منابع، با یکدیگر یکپارچه می کند. همچنین برای محاسبه ی اوزان برنامه ریزی آرمانی از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی که از زیر شاخه‌های تصمیم گیری چند معیاره است استفاده شده است که بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، اوزان انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای، تولید ناخالص داخلی، میزان اشتغال و مصرف انرژی هر یک به ترتیب 433/0، 258/0، 181/0 و 126/0 به دست آمده است. مدل ارائه شده با استفاده از بخش‌های کلیدی اقتصاد ایران با توجه به اهداف توسعه در سند پنجم چشم انداز توسعه، اعتبار سنجی شده است. بر اساس حل این مدل دریافتیم، تنها آرمان در نظر گرفته شده برای مصرف انرژی، محقق نشده است و متغیر انحراف از آرمان نامطلوب آن عدد 3576128 گیگا وات ساعت به دست آمده است که بیانگر این می باشد که در سال‌های آتی جهت دستیابی به اهداف تعیین شده در زمینه‌های مورد نظر به انرژی زیادی نیاز خواهیم داشت، و در صورتی که در رفتار خود در زمینه ی مصرف انرژی تغییراتی ایجاد نکنیم با مشکلات بسیاری در زمینه تامین انرژی و محیط زیست مواجه خواهیم شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of a Model for Development Planning Emphasizing on Environment, Energy and Economy Based on Analytical Hierarchy process and Goal Programming

نویسندگان [English]

  • Jalal Rezaeenour 1
  • Mehran Soltani 2
  • Mohsen Aghelan 2

1 Assistant professor, Head of Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Technology and Engineering, University of Qom, Head of ICT Center, University of Qom,

2 Master of Industrial Engineering at the University of Qom

چکیده [English]

Planning for balanced development requires implementing suitable integrated policies in different sections like economy, environment, energy and social criteria. Some of goals of each section are in conflict with other sections. Goal programming is one of subcategories of multi-criteria decision analysis methods, when we have multiple conflicting goals. In this paper, a weighted goal programming model is suggested to target growth rate of gross domestic product, electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. It is note that, the efficient allocation of resources in each direction, is integrated with the others. Also, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used for calculating weights of goal programming model. Based on the obtained results, weights greenhouse gas emissions, gross domestic product, employment and energy consumption were 0/433, 0/258, 0/181 and 0/126 respectively. The proposed model is validated using key sectors of Iranian economy with regard to development goals in the fifth development prospect document. Based on the solution of this model, we have found that the only Goal for consumption energy has not been achieved and the variable of deviation from the undesirable Goal of 3576128 GWh has been obtained, which suggests that in the coming years to achieve the set goals In the areas of interest we will need a lot of energy, and if we do not make changes in our behavior in terms of energy consumption, we will face a lot of energy and environmental problems.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sustainable Development
  • Green House Gas
  • Gross domestic production
  • Consumption Energy
  • Goal Programming
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 71، شماره 2
شهریور 1397
صفحه 169-184