نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

مدل‌سازی زیستگاه کبرای سیاه (Walterinnesia morgani) در ایران؛ تعیین پراکنش بالقوة کنونی و آتی گونه تحت شرایط زیستگاهی و تغییرات اقلیمی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه محیط‌ زیست، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

10.22059/jne.2023.360850.2565

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیمی در سال‌های اخیر  یکی از اصلی‌ترین دلایل نابودی تنوع زیستی در سطح ایران و جهان شناخته شده است. یکی از مهم‌ترین اقدامات در راستای پیش‌بینی کاهش اثرات منفی تغییرات اقلیمی بر موجودات زنده استفاده از روش‌های مدل‌سازی است که در سال‌های اخیر به‌دلیل افزایش دسترسی به نقاط حضور و لایه‌های اقلیمی گسترش‌یافته است. در این مطالعه زیستگاه و پراکنش گونة ناشناخته کبرای سیاه در نواحی جنوب و جنوب غربی ایران تحت‌تأثیر متغیرهای زیستگاهی و شرایط آب‌وهوایی کنونی و آتی در دو سناریو خوش‌بینانه (SSP126) و بدبینانه (SSP585) تغییر اقلیم آینده (۲۰۴۰ و ۲۱۰۰) با استفاده از شش مدل اقلیمی با روش حداکثر آنتروپی در نرم‌افزار Rstudio با 64 نقطه حضور و ۱۳ لایة محیطی، مدل‌سازی شد. باتوجه‌به نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، زیستگاه بالقوة کنونی کبرای سیاه بیش از مساحت ثبت شده در مطالعات قبلی در ایران پیش‌بینی شد. همچنین مقایسة مدل‌های آینده و زمان حال نشان داد زیستگاه این گونه تا سال ۲۰۴۰، تحت سناریو خوش‌بینانه 27/14 درصد و تحت سناریو بدبینانه 58/18درصد نسبت به شرایط کنونی افزایش خواهد یافت. در نقطه مقابل، زیستگاه مطلوب این گونه تا سال ۲۱۰۰ به مقدار 11/12 درصد تحت سناریو خوش‌بینانه و 19/12 درصد در سناریو بدبینانه نسبت به شرایط کنونی افزایش خواهد یافت که نبست به سال ۲۰۴۰ روند کاهشی خواهد داشت. باتوجه‌به نتایج، متغیر ردپای انسانی تأثیرگذارترین عامل در پراکنش کبرا سیاه است. پس از آن متغیرهای اقلیمی نقش قابل‌توجهی را در مطلوبیت زیستگاه این گونه ایفا می‌کنند. افزایش دما و کاهش بارش تأثیر قابل‌توجهی در مطلوبیت زیستگاه کبرای سیاه نشان دادند. در مجموع به‌نظر می‌رسد اگرچه افزایش گسترة زیستگاه­های مطلوب این گونه تا سال ۲۰۴۰، علاوه بر افزایش جمعیت آن، میزان تقابل این گونه را با ساکنان مناطق جنوب تا جنوب غربی کشور افزایش دهد؛ افزایش روند گرمایش جهانی تا سال ۲۱۰۰ بر این گونه اثرات منفی برجای خواهد گذاشت و شبیه به بسیاری از گونه­ های دیگر با خطر از دست‌دهی زیستگاه ­های مطلوب و خطر انقراض روبه‌رو خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Habitat modeling of Black Cobra (Walterinnesia morgani ) in Iran; predicting current and future potential distribution under habitat conditions and climate change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Asal Alitavoli
  • Mohammad Kaboli

Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

چکیده [English]

In recent years, the destruction of biodiversity in Iran and worldwide has been increasingly attributed to the alarming effects of climate change. To effectively address the negative consequences on living organisms, the utilization of modeling methods is essential. This study focuses on the habitat and distribution of an unidentified species of black cobra in the southern and southwestern regions of Iran. By considering habitat variables and current/future climate conditions, specifically under two scenarios of future climate change (2040 and 2100) - mild (SSP126) and severe (SSP585) - the study employs the maximum entropy method with six climate models for modeling using Rstudio software, covering 64 present points and 18 environmental layers. The results revealed a predicted expansion of the black cobra's potential habitat beyond the previously documented areas in Iran. Furthermore, a comparison between future and current models demonstrates an estimated increase in the species' habitat by 14.27% and 18.58% under the mild and severe scenarios respectively, by 2040, compared to present conditions. However, by 2100, the favorable habitat for the black cobra is projected to decline to 12.11% and 12.19% under the mild and severe scenarios respectively. The findings underscore the influential factors in the distribution of the black cobra, with the human footprint emerging as the most significant. Climatic variables also play a crucial role in determining the habitat suitability for this species, as rising temperatures and reduced precipitation affect its desirability. In conclusion, the expanding range of suitable habitats for the black cobra until 2040 is expected to result in population growth and an escalation of conflicts between this species and residents of the south and southwest regions of Iran. However, if global warming continues to worsen until 2100, it will yield a grave impact, jeopardizing the availability of favorable habitats and putting the black cobra, like many other species, at a heightened risk of extinction.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Black cobra
  • Climate change
  • Habitat suitability modeling
  • Potential distribution range
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 77، ویژه نامه بوم شناسی و مدیریت تنوع زیستی
مرداد 1403
صفحه 1-14