تحلیل روند تغییرات دمای سطح زمین (LST) بر شبکة مناطق حفاظت‌شده و گونه‌های کانونی (Focal species) استان یزد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه علوم و مهندسی محیط‌زیست، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، ایران. عضو پژوهشکده آب، انرژی و محیط زیست

2 گروه محیط‌زیست، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و محیط‌ زیست، دانشگاه ملایر، همدان، ایران.

10.22059/jne.2023.365415.2598

چکیده

پیش‌بینی تغییرات رخ‌داده در محیط‌زیست، در حال حاضر به‌ یکی از شاخه‌های مهم مطالعات محیطی تبدیل‌شده است. یکی از این پیش‌بینی‌ها بررسی تأثیرات احتمالی تغییرات دما روی گونه‌های گیاهی و جانوری است. در این پژوهش هدف آن است تا از دمای سطح زمین (LST) ماهوارة مودیس، به تفکیک فصول بهار، تابستان، پاییز و زمستان برای بررسی روند تغییرات در میانگین دمای سطح زمین ‌ در مناطق حفاظت‌شده و زیستگاه گونه‌های کانونی استفاده شود. گونه‌های کانونی استان شامل، پلنگ، یوزپلنگ، کل و بز، قوچ و میش، آهوی ایرانی و جبیر می‌باشند. در یک مطالعة میدانی نقاط حضور بین سال‌های 1399 تا 1402 از سراسر استان و مناطق حفاظت‌شده جمع‌آوری شدند و میانگین فصلی LST نیز از سال 2003 تا 2033 با استفاده از تولیدات (MYD11A1) ماهوارة مودیس در سامانة گوگل ارث انجین آماده شد. با استفاده از مدل‌های توزیع گونه (SDMs) و تلفیق مدل‌های رگرسیونی و یادگیری ماشین زیستگاه گونه‌ها مدل‌سازی شد. همچنین از آستانة TSS برای تبدیل نقشة احتمال مطلوبیت زیستگاه به نقشة دودویی استفاده گردید. آزمون تحلیل روند من-‌کندال (MK) برای تحلیل روند تغییرات افزایشی و کاهشی دما در سطح معنی‌داری 95 درصد بکار رفت. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که تغییرات کاهشی دمای سطح زمین به‌صورت پراکنده و بدون پیوستگی در سطح رخ ‌داده است اما تغییرات افزایشی دما با پیوستگی فضایی بیشتری همراه هستند. بیشترین روند کاهشی دما در فصل بهار با 15212/69هکتار در زیستگاه آهوی ایرانی رخ داده است در حالی‌که در فصل زمستان هیچ تغییر کاهشی در دما رخ نداده است. مناطق حفاظت‌شده در فصل بهار کمترین روندهای افزایشی و کاهشی LST را تجربه کرده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing land surface temperature (LST) changes in the protected area network and focal species in Yazd Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Morovati 1
  • Payman Karami 2

1 Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture & Natural Resources, Ardakan University,Ardakan, Iran. Water, Energy and Environment Research Institute,Ardakan University,

2 Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment Sciences, Malayer University, Malayer, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Forecasting changes in the environment has now become one of the important branches of environmental studies. One of these predictions is to investigate the possible effects of temperature changes on plant and animal species. In this research, the aim is used the land surface temperature (LST) of the MODIS satellite, separately for spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons, to investigate the changes in the average LST in the protected areas and the habitat of focal species. Focal species of the province include Panthra pardus, Acinonyx jubatus, Capra aegagrus, Ovis orientalis, Gazella subgutturosa and Gazella bennettii. In a field study, the presence points were collected between 1399 and 1402 from all over the province and protected areas, and the seasonal average of LST from 2003 to 2033 was prepared using MODIS satellite products (MYD11A1) in the Google Earth Engine system. Species habitat was modeled by using SDMs and combining regression models and machine learning. Also, the TSS threshold was used to convert the habitat desirability probability map into a binary map. Man-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test was used to analyze the trend of increasing and decreasing temperature changes at a significance level of 95%. The findings show that the decreasing changes in the earth's surface temperature have occurred in a scattered and non-continuous manner on the surface, but the increasing temperature changes are associated with more spatial continuity. The highest decrease in temperature occurred in the spring season with 15,212.69 hectares in the Iranian deer habitat, while there was no decrease in temperature in the winter season. Protected areas have experienced the least increasing and decreasing LST trends in spring.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Distribution range
  • Focal species
  • Temperature changes
  • Yazd province
Almeida, C.R., Teodoro, A.C., Gonçalves, A., 2021. Study of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) using remote
sensing data/techniques: A Systematic Review. Environments 8(10), 105.
Amiri, F., Tabatabaie, T., 2021. Determination of land surface temperature using Landsat images (Case study: Bushehr coastal lands). Journal of RS and GIS for Natural Resources 13(3), 38-49. (In Persian).
Araújo, M.B., Cabeza, M., Thuiller, W., Hannah, L., Williams, P.H., 2004. Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve‐selection methods. Global Change Biology 10(9), 1618-1626.
Atabati, A., Adab, H., 2022. Evaluation of machine learning methods in spatial downscaling of average annual land surface temperature and air temperature. Journal of Natural Environment 75(4), 551-569. (in Persian)
Bender, L.C., Lomas, L.A., Browning, J., 2007. Condition, survival, and cause‐specific mortality of adult female mule deer in north‐central New Mexico. The Journal of Wildlife Management 71(4), 1118-1124.
Bíl, M., Andrášik, R., Kušta, T., Bartonička, T., 2023. Ungulate-vehicle crashes peak a month earlier than 38 years ago due to global warming. Climatic Change 176(7), 84.
Plard, F., Gaillard, J.M., Coulson, T., Hewison, A.M., Delorme, D., Warnant, C., Bonenfant, C., 2014. Mismatch between birth date and vegetation phenology slows the demography of roe deer. PLoS Biology 12(4), e1001828.
Chen, I.C., Hill, J.K., Ohlemüller, R., Roy, D.B., Thomas, C.D., 2011. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333(6045), 1024-1026.
Cook, J.G., Johnson, B.K., Cook, R.C., Riggs, R.A., Delcurto, T.I.M., Bryant, L.D., Irwin, L.L., 2004. Effects of summer‐autumn nutrition and parturition date on reproduction and survival of elk. Wildlife Monographs 155(1), 1-61.
Datta, A., Schweiger, O., Kühn, I., 2020. Origin of climatic data can determine the transferability of species distribution models. NeoBiota 59, 61.
Elliott, J.P., Cowan, I.M., Holling, C.S., 1977. Prey capture by the African lion. Canadian Journal of Zoology 55(11), 1811-1828.
Faghih-sabzevari, N., Farashi, A., 2022. Identification of climate sanctuaries of wild goat (Capra aegagrus, Erxleben, 1777) in the future climate of Iran for conservation. Journal of Animal Research (Iranian Journal of Biology) 35(3), 202-216. (In Persian)
Gorelick, N., Hancher, M., Dixon, M., Ilyushchenko, S., Thau, D., Moore, R., 2017. Google Earth Engine: Planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone. Remote sensing of Environment 202, 18-27.
Hao, T., Elith, J., Lahoz‐Monfort, J.J., Guillera‐Arroita, G., 2020. Testing whether ensemble modelling is advantageous for maximising predictive performance of species distribution models. Ecography 43(4), 549-558.
Houghton, J.T., 2001. Appendix I–Glossary. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 149 p.
Husseman, J.S., Murray, D.L., Power, G., Mack, C., Wenger, C.R., Quigley, H., 2003. Assessing differential prey selection patterns between two sympatric large carnivores. Oikos 101(3), 591-601.
Kafaei, S., Karami, P., Mehdizadeh, R., Akmali, V., 2021. Relationship between niche breadth and range shifts of Rhinopoma muscatellum (Chiroptera: Rhinopomatidae) in climate change scenarios in arid and semiarid mountainous region of Iran. Journal of Mountain Science 18(9), 2357-2376.
Kakehmami, A., Ghorbani, A., Asghari Sarasekanrood, S., Ghale, E., Ghafari, S., 2020. Study of the relationship between land use and vegetation changes with the land surface temperature in Namin County. Journal of RS and GIS for Natural Resources 11(2), 27-48. (In Persian)
Karami P, Shayesteh K, Esmaeili M. Highlighting the Importance of the Vegetation Variable on Distributed Land surface temperature on different land use/land cover in Javanrud city range. PEC 2020 7(15), 333-356. (in Persian)
Karami, P .2021. Identifying and Analyzing Distribution of Habitat's Hotspots of Salient Vertebrates from Landscape Perspective in Kermanshah Province. Ph.D. Thesis of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Malayer University. 421 p. (In Persian)
Karami, P., Tavakoli, S., Esmaeili, M., 2023a. Evolution of seasonal land surface temperature trend in pond-breeding newt (Neurergus derjugini) in western Iran and eastern Iraq. Ecological Processes 12(1), 14.
Karami, P., Tavakoli, S., Esmaeili, M., 2023b. Monitoring spatiotemporal impacts of changes in land surface temperature on near eastern fire salamander (Salamandra infraimmaculata) in the Middle East. Heliyon 9(6).
Karbalaee, A.R., Beygam Hejazizadeh, Z., Masoodian, S.A. and Keikhosravi Kiany, M., 2021. Trend Analysis of Land surface temperature using Remote Sensing Data in Iran. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards 10(2), 93-109. (In Persian)
Khosravi, M., Chamani, A., Mirzaei, R., 2021. The impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the conservation network with respect to the Bovidae and Cervidae family in Iran. Journal of Natural Environment 74(2), 208-223. (In Persian)
Macchi M .,2010. Mountains of the World–Ecosystem Services in a Time of Global and Climate Change: Seizing Opportunities–Meeting Challenges. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Kathmandu, Nepal. p20.
Maria, B., Udo, S., 2017. Why input matters: Selection of climate data sets for modelling the potential distribution of a treeline species in the Himalayan region. Ecological Modelling 359, 92-102.
Mokhtari, Z., Barghjelveh, S., Sayahnia, R., Karami, P., Qureshi, S., Russo, A., 2022. Spatial pattern of the green heat sink using patch-and network-based analysis: Implication for urban temperature alleviation. Sustainable Cities and Society 83, 103964.
Moradi, E., Tavili, A., Asadollahi, M., Ahmadi Roknabadi, M.R., 2022. Spatial modeling of Trigonella elliptica potential habitat using environmental variables and machine learning technique in the Rangelands of Yazd province, Journal of Natural Environment 75(2), 291-306. (In Persian)
Moradi, M., Darand, M., 2022. Trend analysis of land surface temperature over Iran based on land cover and topography. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 19(8), 7229-7242. (In Persian)
Morin, A., Chamaillé-Jammes, S., Valeix, M., 2021. Climate effects on prey vulnerability modify expectations of predator responses to short-and long-term climate fluctuations. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 8, 601202.
Price, M.F., Butt, N. eds., 2000. Forests in sustainable mountain development: a state of knowledge report for 2000. Task Force on Forests in Sustainable Mountain Development. CABI Publishing.
Renner, S.S., Zohner, C.M., 2018. Climate change and phenological mismatch in trophic interactions among plants, insects, and vertebrates. Annual review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 49, 165-182.
Schröder, W., Schmidt, G., Schönrock, S., 2014. Modelling and mapping of plant phenological stages as bio-meteorological indicators for climate change. Environmental Sciences Europe 26(1), 1-13.
Shafiezadeh, M., Moradi, H., Fakheran, S., Pourmanafi, S., 2018. Modeling Focal-Species Habitat Suitability for Biodiversity Conservation Planning in the Southeastern Iran. Iranian Journal of Applied Ecology 7(3), 51-66. (In Persian)
Shams, A., Nezami, B., Raygani, B., Shams Esfand Abad, B., 2019. Climate change and its effects on Asiatic Cheetah suitable habitats in Center of Iran (Case study: Yazd Province), Journal of Animal Environment 11(3), 1-12. (In Persian)
Socolar, J.B., Epanchin, P.N., Beissinger, S.R., Tingley, M.W., 2017. Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(49), 12976-12981.
Srivastava, P.K., Majumdar, T.J., Bhattacharya, A.K., 2009. Surface temperature estimation in Singhbhum Shear Zone of India using Landsat-7 ETM+ thermal infrared data. Advances in space Research 43(10), 1563-1574.
Tavousi, T., Kajehamiri Khaledi, C., Salari Fanoudi, M.M.R. 2021. Review of Iran's Climatic Zoning Based on Some Climate Variables, Desert Management 8(16), 17-36. (In Persian)
UNEP-WCMC. 2002. Mountain Watch: Environmental Change and Sustainable Development in Mountains. UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, UK.
Zare Chahouki, M.A., Karami, P., Piri Sahragard, H., 2022. Ensemble Modeling Approach to Predict the Potential Distribution of Artemisia sieberi in Desert Rangelands of Yazd Province, Central Iran. Journal of Rangeland Science 12(4), 326-340.