نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

برآورد بارش مؤثر به روش حل معکوس در اراضی تحت کشت گندم دیم و مقایسة آن با روش‌های تجربی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، کرج، ایران.

10.22059/jne.2023.356951.2539

چکیده

در این پژوهش باران مؤثر در اراضی تحت کشت گندم دیم استان کرمانشاه به روش حل معکوس برآورد گردیده و نتایج حاصل از آن با روش­های تجربی برآورد باران مؤثر ( USDA، FAO، درصدی و تجربی) مقایسه و خطای نسبی آن­ها برآورد شده است. با توجه به نیاز به داده­های هواشناسی و عملکرد محصول گندم دیم، از داده­های هواشناسی استان کرمانشاه که شامل 10 ایستگاه هواشناسی بوده و همچنین از اطلاعات میزان تولید و سطح زیرکشت موجود در سالنامه­های زراعی برای محصول گندم دیم برای 14 سال زراعی استفاده شد. ابتدا بارش مؤثر به کمک انواع روش­های مورد اشارة تجربی محاسبه و همچنین تبخیر تعرق واقعی محصول گندم دیم با استفاده از توابع عملکرد در محدودة مطالعاتی محاسبه و در نتیجه مقدار بارش مؤثر برآورد گردید. سپس روش­های برآورد بارش مؤثر به‌صورت تجربی و حل معکوس مقایسه شدند. نتایج  نشان داد که روش درصدی با میانگین خطای نسبی 25/9 درصد کمترین خطا و روش FAO با میانگین خطای نسبی 47/78 درصد بیشترین خطا را نسبت به روش حل معکوس داشتند. با توجه به اینکه، روش ­های تجربی برآورد بارش مؤثر نسبت به روش حل معکوس مقدار خطای قابل توجهی داشته به توسعة مدل مناسبی از برآورد بارش مؤثر پرداخته شد؛ بدین‌منظور، منحنی بر 12 سری از داده­های بارش-بارش مؤثر برازش داده شد و 2 سری از داده­ ها برای صحت­سنجی بکار گرفته شدند. خطای داده­ های اعتبارسنجی تابع با معیار خطای RMSE ارزیابی شد. مقدار RMSE برای داده ­های اعتبار‌سنجی 4/61 میلی‌متر محاسبه شد. سپس، روش­ های تجربی برآورد بارش مؤثر و روش تابع فیت شده مورد مقایسه قرار گرفتند. نتایج نشان داد که مدل پیشنهاد شده در این پژوهش با میانگین خطای نسبی 1/07 درصد قادر است با دقت بیشتری میزان بارش مؤثر را در استان کرمانشاه نسبت به روش­ های تجربی دیگر برآورد کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of effective rainfall in the method of inverse problem solving in wheat-cultured fields and its comparison with experimental methods

نویسندگان [English]

  • Soheila Mohtashami
  • Abdolmajid Liaghat

Department of Irrigation Engineering, College of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

چکیده [English]

In this study, effective rainfall in wheat - cultivated areas of kermanshah province has been estimated as an inverse solution method and the results are estimated using the experimental method of effective rainfall (USDA, FAO, percentage and experimental)and their relative error is estimated. According to the need for meteorological data and the performance of caltivated dry farming wheat crop, kermanshah province's meteorological data, which consisted of 10 meteorological stations and also increased production data and the area sown to wheat crop for caltivated dry farming wheat crop for 14 years. First, effective rainfall was calculated with the help of different methods of computation and also the actual evapotranspiration of caltivated dry farming wheat using functions in the study area was calculated and therefore, the amount of precipitation was estimated. Then, the effective rainfall estimation methods are experimentally compared. The results expressed that during the last 14 years, the amount of effective rainfall estimated according to the inverse solution method during the period of caltivated dry farming wheat crop growth ranges from 119.85 to 279.90 mm. The results showed that the average error of the experimental method in the estimation of effective rainfall was significantly higher than the reverse solution method and the percentage method with average error margin of 25.9 % and FAO method with mean relative error rate of 47.78% had the highest error compared to the reverse solution method. Due to the fact that the experimental methods of effective rainfall estimation have a significant amount of error compared to the inverse solution method, a suitable model of effective rainfall estimation was developed. The results showed that the model proposed in this research, with an average relative error of 1.07%, is able to more accurately estimate the amount of effective precipitation in Kermanshah province than other experimental methods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • CROPWAT
  • Effective rainfall
  • Experimental methods
  • Inverse solving
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 76، شماره 4
اسفند 1402
صفحه 689-699