نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

مدلسازی وقوع و گسترش جبهه ی آتش سوزی با استفاده از روش اتوماتای سلولی ( مطالعه موردی: منطقه حفاظت شده ارسباران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه سنجش از دور و GIS ، دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی مرند، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران

3 گروه سنجش از دور و GIS ، دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی، دانشگاه تبریز ، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

آتش سوزی، سالانه خسارت قابل ملاحظه ای را به عرصه های طبیعی وارد میسازد. اتوماتای سلولی ابزاری است برای مدلسازی و شبیه‌سازی فرایندهایی که در جهان واقعی رخ میدهند. با علم به نحوه ی گسترش آتش‌سوزی و تهیه نقشه ریسک آتش سوزی، از این نقشه ها میتوان برای جلوگیری و پیشگیری از آتش سوزی و خسارات ناشی از آن استفاده کرد. در این تحقیق ابتدا پهنه بندی ریسک آتش سوزی در جنگلهای ارسباران با استفاده از عوامل محیطی چون شیب، جهت شیب، پوشش گیاهی و جهت باد غالب و بهره گیری از مدل Fire risk مشخص شده، سپس از مدل اتوماتای سلولی در غالب روش الکساندریدیس برای شبیه‌سازی نحوه ی گسترش جبهه ی آتش استفاده گردید. به دلیل وقوع آتش‌سوزی های زیاد ثبت شده در جنگل‌های ارسباران و غنای سرشار فلور و فون در آن، مستلزم حفاظت بیشتر مخصوصا از نظر آتش سوزی است.
بررسی نتایج مدل Fire risk نشان داد که 36/56 درصد از منطقه دارای پتانسیل زیاد و خیلی زیاد برای وقوع آتش سوزی میباشد و جهت شیب و مقدار آن بیشترین تاثیر را در وقوع و گسترش جبهه ی آتش دارند. همچنین میزان همبستگی نقشه نهایی پتانسیل وقوع آتش‌سوزی با خطوط ارتباطی بیش از 73/0 میباشد که نشان میدهد عامل انسانی سهم بسزایی در ایجاد حریق داشته است. نتایج بدست آمده از مدل اتوماتای سلولی نیز نشان دادند که استفاده از این مدل همراه باGIS ، علاوه بر سرعت بخشیدن به شبیه‌سازی گسترش جبهه آتش و قابلیت نمایشی پویا از آن، از دقت بالایی (88/0) نیز برخوردار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling occurrence and the spread of forest fire using cellular automata approach (Case Study: Arasbaran protected area)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Maleki 1
  • leila malekani 2
  • khalil Valizadeh kamran 3

1 Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geography and Planning, University of Tabriz, Iran

2 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Technical and Engineering of Marand, University of Tabriz, Iran

3 Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geography and Planning, University of Tabriz, Iran

چکیده [English]

Each year fire damages the natural environment remarkably. Cellular automata is a way of modeling and simulating processes in the real world.
We can take precautionary steps toward preventing fire and damages after, by knowing how it spreads and providing risk plans.
In this research, the fire risk model has been used for modeling fire occurrence which is composed of factors such as slope, slope direction, vegetation cover, and prevailing wind direction. During this process, areas with a high risk of fire have been determined and by using the cellular automata model. In this model, the Alexandridis method in MATLAB was used. it became possible to simulate the fire spread model of Arasbaran forests in the northwest of Iran. This area holds the record of most fire statistics in the whole province and considering huge resources of flora and fauna available there, it is essential to protect this area most of all from fire.
Results have shown that 56.36% of this area is highly exposed to fire. Slope gradient and slope direction are two important factors in the start and spreading of fire. Human factors play a great role in the development of fire. also, results indicate that using cellular automata along with GIS, not only accelerates the simulation of fire but also it has great accuracy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fire
  • GIS
  • Arasbaran protected area
  • Cellular Automata
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 73، شماره 1
فروردین 1399
صفحه 129-141