نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

مدل‌سازی درجات تخریب جنگل‌های حوضه 12 ماسال استان گیلان با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 فارغ التحصیل دانشگاه گیلان

2 دانشیار، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه گیلان، صومعه‌سرا، ایران

3 استادیار جنگلداری دانشگاه گیلان

4 دانشجوی دکتری جنگلشناسی دانشگاه گیلان

چکیده

برنامه‌ریزی برای مدیریت آتی جنگل‌ها، بدون داشتن اطلاع کافی از وضعیت تخریب جنگل‌ها در گذشته میسر نیست. مطالعه حاضر به‌منظور مدل‌سازی درجات تخریب جنگل با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک رتبه‌ای در حوضه آبخیز 12 ماسال انجام پذیرفت. در این مطالعه عوامل شیب، ارتفاع از سطح دریا، جهت جغرافیایی، فاصله از رودخانه‌ها، فاصله از شبکه راه‌ها، فاصله از مناطق مسکونی و مراکز جمعیتی و فاصله از دامسراها به‌عنوان متغیر‌های مستقل و درجات مختلف تخریب جنگل به عنوان متغیر وابسته وارد مدل رگرسیونی شدند. استخراج متغیر‌های مستقل از نقشه‌های رقومی منطقه و ثبت درجات تخریب جنگل از طریق برداشت نمونه‌های زمینی صورت گرفت. برای تعیین میزان تأثیر هر عامل از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و به‌منظور مدل‌سازی عوامل از رگرسیون لجستیک رتبه‌ای با پنج تابع اتصال شامل: Cauchit، Negative log-log، Complementary log-log، Logit و Probit استفاده شد. از آزمون‌های آماری نسبت تشابه و والد نیز برای بررسی معنی‌داری مدل و ضرایب آن استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل ساخته شده با تابع اتصال Probit از قابلیت مناسب در مدل‌سازی درجات تخریب برخوردار است. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که 32/20760 هکتار از جنگل‌های حوضه مورد مطالعه (معادل 83 درصد از سطح کل جنگل‌های منطقه) با درجات بسیار کم تا متوسط تخریب مواجه هستند. در نتیجه تدوین برنامه‌های حفاظتی برای 83 درصد از سطح جنگل‌های حوضه و اجرای عملیات احیائی برای 17 درصد از سطح این جنگل‌ها (مطابق با نقشه درجات تخریب جنگل ارائه شده در این مطالعه) اثر مطلوبی بر بهبود وضعیت جنگل‌های حوضه مورد مطالعه خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the Forest Degradation Degrees of Masal Watershed NO: 12 in Guilan Province, Using Logistic Regression

نویسندگان [English]

  • saad allah shadmani 1
  • mehrdad ghodskhah daryaei 2
  • ismael ghajar 3
  • abouzar heidari safari kouchi 4

1 educated at guilan university

2 Associate Prof., Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Guilan, Sowme`eh Sara, I.R. Iran.

3 Assistant Prof., Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Guilan

4 Ph.D Student, Silviculture and Forest Ecology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Guilan

چکیده [English]

Planning for management of the forests in the future is not possible without having sufficient information about the forest degradation conditions in the past. The present study was conducted to model the forest degradation levels using logistic regression in the Masal watershed NO: 12. In this study, the factors of slope, altitude, geographic direction, distance from rivers, distance from the road networks, distance from residential areas, population centers and distance from barns as independent variables and different degrees of forest degradation entered into the regression model as dependent variables. Extraction of independent variables is done by using the digital maps of the area and recording the forest degradation degrees is done through terrestrial field work. To determinate the impact of each factor a hierarchical analysis method and to model the factors the logistic regression with five connects functions including: Cauchit, Negative log-log, Complementary log-log, Logit and Probit were used. The statistical tests of similarity and Wald were used to examine the significance of the model and its coefficients. The results showed that the model constructed with the Probit connection function has the appropriate capability in modeling the forest degradation. The results also showed that 20760.32 hectares of studied forests (equivalent to 83 percent of the total forest area) were degraded from very low to moderate levels. As a result, the conservation plans for 83% of the watershed forest areas and the implementation of recovery operations for 17% of the forest area (according to the forest degradation map presented in this study) have a favorable effect on improvement of the forest condition in the studied watershed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Parallel lines test
  • connection function
  • Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
  • Hyrcanian forests
  • Geographic Information System (GIS)
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 73، شماره 1
فروردین 1399
صفحه 49-61