Climate change can have serious impacts on the life of ectothermic reptiles. Species with limited global geographic distributions, such as the Mesopotamian spiny-tailed lizard (Saara loricata) (MSTL), are more sensitive to climate change. In the present study, habitat suitability for this lizard in Khuzestan Province was analyzed using the maximum entropy model, employing 53 occurrence points and 12 environmental variables including climatic and topographic variables, vegetation, soil, rivers, and roads. Furthermore, to investigate the effects of future climate change on the potential distribution of the species, three climate scenarios—SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585—for two future time periods of 2021–2040 and 2061–2080 were applied using data from the BCC-CSM2-MR model within the MaxEnt software. The modeling results showed that the average area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for 10 replicates was 0.823, demonstrating the model's suitable accuracy in predicting habitat suitability for the species. The Soil, isothermality (BIO3), distance to roads, precipitation of wettest month (BIO13), precipitation of wettest quarter (BIO16), mean temperature of coldest quarter (BIO11), land cover, and digital elevation model had the greatest importance in modeling habitat suitability for the MSTL. Overall, the highest habitat suitability for the species' distribution exists in the northern, central, southeastern, and eastern parts of Khuzestan Province. Additionally, the results of future climate scenarios showed that unsuitable habitat in the southern and central parts of the province and highly suitable habitat in the northern parts will increase. Consequently, the potential distribution of the species will shift toward higher latitudes and mountainous areas. The findings of the present study, by identifying habitat areas and future climate changes, can be used in conservation planning and optimal habitat management for this valuable species.