نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

تحلیل تفاضلی اثر روند بارشی بر امنیت آبی در اقلیم‌های ناهمگون ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدة جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه اقلیم‌شناسی، دانشکدة علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدة جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

4 گروه سنجش از دور و سیستم‌های اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دانشکدة ادبیات، دانشگاه فردوسی، مشهد، ایران.

10.22059/jne.2025.402103.2839

چکیده

امنیت آبی در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک با اقلیم‌های ناهمگون مانند ایران، یک چالش چندبعدی است. با این حال، ارزیابی‌های کلان اغلب پاسخ‌های متفاوت مناطق اقلیمی به تغییرات هیدرولوژیک را نادیده می‌گیرند. این مطالعه با هدف پر کردن این خلأ، به تحلیل تفاضلی اثر روند بارش طی دورة ۱۹۷۰-۲۰۲۱ بر شاخص امنیت آبی (Aqueduct 4.0) در پهنه‌های اقلیمی متمایز ایران براساس طبقه‌بندی کوپن-گایگر می‌پردازد. بنابراین، پس از آشکارسازی روندهای بارش با آزمون من-کندال، از مدل تحلیل کوواریانس (ANCOVA) برای آزمون اثر تعدیل‌گر اقلیم بر رابطة میان این دو متغیر استفاده شد. نتایج، یک اثر تعاملی آماری معنی‌دار بین روند بارش و نوع اقلیم را آشکار ساخت (0/03) (0/03≈p)، که فرضیة اصلی تحقیق مبنی بر پاسخ ناهمگون امنیت آبی را تأیید می‌کند. در ادامه برای کمی‌سازی این تفاوت، یک شاخص حساسیت محاسبه گردید که نشان داد اقلیم‌های مدیترانه‌ای با تابستان گرم (Csa)، نیمه‌خشک گرم (BSh) و بیابانی گرم (BWh) با ثبت مقادیر حساسیت به‌ترتیب ۳۹۸، ۱۹۰ و ۱۸۵، آسیب‌پذیرترین مناطق در برابر نوسانات بارش هستند. در مقابل، سایر اقلیم‌ها حساسیت بسیار پایینی نشان دادند که حاکی از تاب‌آوری بیشتر یا غلبة عوامل دیگری چون مدیریت انسانی بر سیستم است. این یافته‌ها بر ناکارآمدی سیاست‌های یکپارچه تأکید کرده و ضرورت تدوین راهبردهای مدیریت منابع آب منطقه‌ای و مبتنی بر شواهد اقلیمی را برای تضمین امنیت آبی پایدار در ایران برجسته می‌سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Differential impact of precipitation trends on water security across Iran's heterogeneous climatic zones

نویسندگان [English]

  • Faeze Shoja 1
  • Ali Reza Karbalaee Doree 2
  • Saeideh Ashrafi 3
  • Muhammad Kamangar 4

1 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Teheran, Iran.

2 Department of Climatology Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.

4 Department Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Literature, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.

چکیده [English]

In the context of arid and semi-arid regions characterised by pronounced climatic heterogeneity, such as Iran, ensuring water security is inherently complex. However, monolithic, national-scale assessments frequently fail to capture the differential responses of distinct climatic zones to hydrological changes. This study addresses this gap by conducting a differential analysis of the impact of precipitation trends from 1970 to 2021 on the Aqueduct 4.0 water security index across Iran's diverse climatic zones, as defined by the Köppen-Geiger classification. Following the detection of precipitation trends using the Mann-Kendall test, an Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) model was employed to test the moderating effect of climate type on the relationship between these two variables. The findings indicated a statistically significant interaction effect between precipitation trend and climate type (p ≈ 0.03), thereby substantiating the central hypothesis of a heterogeneous water security response. In order to quantify the differential impact, a sensitivity index was calculated, which identified the Mediterranean (Csa), hot semi-arid (BSh), and hot desert (BWh) climates as the most vulnerable to precipitation variability, with sensitivity indices of 398, 190, and 185, respectively. Conversely, other climatic zones demonstrated minimal sensitivity, indicating enhanced resilience or the predominance of alternative factors, such as anthropogenic pressures, on the system. These findings emphasise the limitations of a universalised approach and underscore the necessity of formulating region-specific, climate-informed water management strategies to ensure sustainable water security in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Adaptive water management
  • Climate change
  • Köppen-Geiger classification
  • Water security
  • Water vulnerability
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 78، شماره 4
دی 1404
صفحه 237-550