Predicting changes in climatic environmental factors in the Zagros region for the future periods

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Geosciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord , Iran


Uncontrolled emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been cited as a major reason and threat to climate change. Accordingly, it causes decreasing in precipitation, increasing of temperature, and the occurrence of extreme climatic consequences in the future. Due to the characteristics of communities and limitations, it has harmful consequences. Understanding the trend of these changes in global climate change projects is crucial to understanding future climate change. In this research, based on global atmospheric circulation models has been used a statistical model for regional downscaling. This study has been carried out in the North Kroon basin in order to study the trend of precipitation components and average temperature, to reveal the impact of influence on the region's climate, that the results have been shown in the forecast range of (2100 -2020). Using both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), the model evaluation performance for the precipitation variable (R = 0.85, MAD = 0.58, MSE = 0.73, RMSE = 0.84) and for the temperature variable (R = 0.93, MAD = 2.2, MSE = 1.5, RMSE = 1.3). All in all, the average precipitation will increase 35.97 mm compared to the observation period under RCP2.6 scenarios and will increase by 73.57 mm under RCP8.5 scenarios. Also, the temperature in both scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 will respectively increase by 3.01 and 4.79 ° C.


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