Prediction Of Vegetation Changes And Carbon Dioxide Emission Trends Based On The Project Scenario REDD (Case Study: Central Alborz Protected Area)

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Environment, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Geodesy and Geodynamics, National Surveying Organization (NCC), Tehran, Iran


Over time, land cover patterns and subsequent land uses change fundamentally. Therefore, in order to make the best use of natural resources, it is necessary to obtain accurate information about land use potential. The main goal of the REDD project is to reduce greenhouse gasses (methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide) and increase carbon sequestration in areas with high land use change. Therefore, to protect the Kojoor area, it is important to properly understand not only human factors, but also the role of natural factors such as vegetation. Based on the objectives of REDD, the study of forest cover changes in the study area was conducted using Landsat satellite images (4, 5 and 8) for the years 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2015 and 2017. Finally, using the BioCFon method (BioCF) and the base period 1364-1396, the change in forest cover was modeled for the next 4 years (until 1425) and the amount of carbon dioxide emissions was calculated until 2046. The results of examining the vegetation indices showed an improvement in cover condition over the study period. Therefore, the improvement in cover condition can be attributed to the application of protective measures. According to the results obtained in 2046, the land cover classes without land cover will have about 8%, the land cover class with pasture will have 40.8%, and the forest cover class will have an area of 51.1%. In addition, between 2017 and 1425, if the project strategy is not implemented, about 199569 hectares (20%) of forest area will be destroyed and 1995695 tons of carbon dioxide will be emitted, while this amount will be 405512 tons if the project REDD is implemented. The emission of 1590183 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (42%) into the upper atmosphere of the Earth can be prevented.


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