The Effect of Climatic elements on the Systematic Risk Severity of Iranian Date Yield using Dynamic Spatial Panel Approach

Document Type : Research Paper


1 M.Sc. Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics , University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran


Agriculture has intrinsically depended on nature, which is associated with risk and lack of certainty. Decreased precipitation, extreme cold, freezing, drought, and the prevalence of plant diseases and pests are the only small part of the risk that farmers are facing. Climatic and weather changes in different regions are often interconnected, and this coincidence may affect a huge part of the country. In other words, such abrupt changes usually result in a systematic risk of gardening products yield. Adverse weather events in one year have different effects in different areas, hitting some regions strongly while involving others less severely. In this research, the systematic risk of date yield and factors affecting its severity were investigated using spatial dynamic panel patterns. The statistical data of 8 major date producers and meteorological variables over the Provinces of Bushehr, Khuzestan, South Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Fars, Kerman, Hormozgan, and Yazd during the years 2008 to 2019 were extracted from the Meteorological Organization and the Ministry of Agriculture. The results of the spatial Durbin model showed that the spatial spillover of the Annual precipitation in the date-producing provinces has a positive (2.90) and significant effect whereas the spatial spillover of Untimely precipitation variables has a negative and significant effect on the average yield of the Iranian date. Besides, the effect of the spatial spillover of the Average maximum summer temperature was determined at 1.83, which shows the given variable has a negative and significant effect on the date yield likewise. Comparing direct and indirect effects in the dynamic spatial panel model showed that in the short-term, Annual precipitation variables have a negative and significant relationship on the average date yield. Meanwhile, the long-term results proved the direct but negative effect of Untimely annual cold and Annual precipitation variables on the average date yield.


Anselin, L., 1988. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands 278 p.
Benhin, J.K.A., 2008. South African crop farming and climate change, An economic assessment of impacts, Global Environmental Change 18, 666-678.
Danafer, F., Sarrafi, A., Khosravan, A., Hassanzadeh, M.J., 2017.  Applications of palm kernel and its optimal use, Fourth International Conference on Environmental Planning and Management. (In Persian).
Izadi M., Shahsavar A.R., 2015.  The role of climatic factors in the complication of wilting and withering of date clusters, 9th Congress of Horticultural Sciences 1-6. (In Persian).
Janat Sadeghi, M., Shahnoushiforoshani, N., Daneshvar Kakhki, M., Doorandish, A., Mohammadi, H., 2018.  Investigation of factors affecting the yield of strategic agricultural products (wheat and barley) in Khorasan Razavi province, Agricultural Economics 21. 111-134. (In Persian).
Jackson, J.E., Hamer, P.J.C., Wickenden, M.F., 1982. Effects of early spring temperatures on the set of fruits of Cox's Orange Pippin apple and year-to-year variation in its yields. Acta Hort 139, 75-82.
Karimi P., Mansoorian Khajeh Lengi M. 2013.  Drought assessment and its impact on dryland and irrigated wheat Yyield in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, The First National Conference on Medicinal Plants and Sustainable Agriculture, Shahid Mofteh College, Hamadan 1-14. (In Persian).
Karimifard, S., Moghaddasi, R., Yazdani, S., Mohammadinejad, A., 2018.  The effect of climatic variables on the yield of agricultural products in Iran (Case study: Khuzestan province), Agricultural Economics 12, 91-109. (in Persian).
LeSage, J.P., 1999.  The theory and practice of spatial econometrics. University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 269 p.
Mathieu, J.A., Aires, F., 2018.  Assessment of the agro-climatic indices to improve crop yield forecasting Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 253, 15-30. 
Ministry of Jihad Agriculture., 2017. Statistics and information technology office, Statistics of agricultural and livestock products, Crop and horticultural products, Available at (In Persian).
Ministry of Roads and Urban Development. 2019. Meteorological organization, Portal of the meteorological organization, Provincial climate, Available at (In Persian).
Monjazeb M.R., Nosrati, R., 2018. Advanced econometric models with Ivyus and Stata, first edition 415 p. (In Persian).
Mäkinen, H., Kaseva, J., Trnka, M., Balek, J., Kersebaum, K.C., Nendel, C., Gobin, A., Olesen, J.E., Bindi, M., Ferrise, R., Moriondo, M., Rodríguez, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Takáčl, J., Bezákl, P., Ventrella, D., Ruget, F., Capellades, G., Kahiluoto, H., 2018.  Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme, Weather Field Crops Research 222, 209-217.
Naghavipour, A., 2016. The effect of frequency of dust days, relative humidity and temperature on the complication of date cluster drought in Bam groves, Master Thesis in Natural Geography, Sistan and Baluchestan University of Applied Climatology 105 p. (In Persian).
Powell, J.P., Reinhard, S., 2018.  Measuring the effects of extreme weather events on yields, Weather and Climate Extreme 12, 69-79.‏
 Salami, H. A., Nemati, M., 2013. A Study of Systematic Yield of Yield and Factors Affecting Its Intensity in Apple Crop in Iran: Application of Spatial Autoregressive Patterns, Economics and Agricultural Development 27 288-299. (In Persian).
Shafieian, A., 2017. Date palm, Deputy minister of horticulture, Office of tropical and subtropical fruits. (In Persian).
World Food and Agriculture Organization, 2019. Agricultural production statistics, FAO State, Available at
Zaied, Y.B., 2013. Long run versus short run analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. In Economic Research Forum Working Papers 808 p.
Zhanga, Y., Zhanga, L., Yangb, N., Huthc, N., Wangd, E., van der Werfe, W., Jochem B., Everse, Wanga, Q., Zhanga, D., Wanga, R., Gaof, H., Antene, N., 2019.  Optimized sowing time windows mitigate climate risks for oats production under cool semi-arid growing conditions Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 266, 184-197.