Journal of Natural Environment

Testing the Droughts Effect of Production Hypothesis in Iran's Provinces: SAR Model

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Buroujerdi University

Abstract

The drought effect that means water shortages due to drought events, is that one percent of the water access limitations, ceteris paribus, how many percent reduces the economic growth. In the last decades environmental economists have been answering this question that is whether there is a level of consumption and discharge of water resources that reverses the positive impact of water on production. To this end, using data from 30 provinces during the period 1383-1396 and application of Spatial Aotu Regressive General Momentums Model Dynamic Panel Data A new interpretation of the drought and thresholds effect for the extraction of groundwater resources on the real GDP was presented. The results showed that groundwater resources at the surface and squared have 556/7311 and -0/0065 coefficients. The threshold was estimated at 42/825 billion cubic meters per year. Extracting over this threshold has a negative environmental, economic, social and political impact that leads to a reduction of real GDP in the provinces of Iran. Thus, the drought effect on the provinces of Iran is not rejected. Human footprints are also visible in underground water supplies. Also, the spatial lagged variable has a coefficient of 0/1064 which indicates that the discharge of basin whose geographic location is from an environmental dimension independent of political divisions has spatial effects on the real GDP of adjacent provinces. It is suggested that the authorized and unauthorized water rent is controlled with using temporary water ownership instead of permanent ownership. The demand side is controlled and the economic production of water is strengthened using water market tools. So underground water resources have been reduce until reach below the threshold to zeroing the negative consequences of resource extraction.

Keywords

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Journal of Natural Environment
Volume 72, Issue 3
July 2019
Pages 295-309