Journal of Natural Environment

Winter and summer distribution of wild goat in Kolah-Qazi National Park

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Isfahan university of technology

2 associate professor of IUT

3 assistant professor of IUT

4 graduated MS student of IUT

Abstract

Understanding where threatened species prefer to live and distinguishing their basic habitat requirements are the first priority for any decision making and action plans. Habitat suitability models is one of the available tools for improving this knowledge. Wild goat (Capra aegagrus) is a vulnerable species which is widely distributed in Iran, but the ecology of this species is not sufficiently studied. The purpose of this study was modelling seasonal habitat suitability and habitat associations of wild goat in Kolah-Qazi National Park, one of its typic habitats in cental Asia .Logistic Regression approach was used to model wild goat habitat suitability using both the presence and absence points. Elevation, distance to water trough, distance to settlement, distance to public road, and distance to guard patrol road were recognised as the most important variables determining habitat suitability of wild goat. According to the produced habitat suitability maps, in winter wild goat herds aggregated in mountain borders but in autumn their distribution is more evenness and the extent of suitable habitats in winter was more than the summer. The accuracy of both winter and revealed good efficiency The obtained results have implications for conservation of wild goat across its distribution range.

Keywords

Acevedo, P., Cassinello, J., Hortal, J., Gortázar, C., 2007. Invasive exotic aoudad (Ammotragus lervia) as a major threat to native Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica): a habitat suitability model approach. Diversity and Distribution 13, 587–597
Alqamy,  H. E.,and et al., 2010. Predicting the status and distribution of the nubian ibex (capra nubiana) in the high-altitude mountains of south sinai (Egypt). Galemys 22, 517-530.
Cassinello, J., Acevedo, P., Hortal, J., 2006. Prospects for population expansion of the exotic aoudad (Ammotragus lervia; Bovidae) in the Iberian Peninsula: clues from habitat suitability modelling. Diversity and  Distribution 12,666–678
Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Anderson, R.P., Dudı´k, M., Ferrier, S., et al., 2006. Novelmethods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data.Ecography 29, 129–151.
Farahmand, m., certificate of kolah-Qazi national park, 2008.press commission, Isfahan DOE(in persian).
Gavashelishvili, A., 2004. Habitat selection by East Caucasian tur .Biological Conservation 120, 391-398.
Graham, C.H., Ferrier, S., Huettman, F., Moritz, C., Peterson, A.T., 2004. New developments in museum-based informatics and applications in biodiversityanalysis. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 19, 497–503.
Graham, C.H., Mortiz, C.,Williams, S.E., 2006. Habitat history improves prediction of biodivesity in a rainforest fauna. Proceeding of the Natural Academy of Science 103, 632–636.
Gross, J.E.,  Kneeland, M.C., Reed, D.F., Reich, R.M., 2002. Gis-based habitat models for mountain goats, journal of Mammalogy83,218–228.
Guisan, A., Zimmermann, N.E., 2000. Predictive habitat distribution models inecology. Ecological Modelling 135, 147–186.
Hirzel, A.H., et al., 2006. Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences. Ecol Model 199,142-152.
Hirzel, A.H., Posse, B., Oggier, P.A., Crettenand, Y., Glenz, C., et al., 2004. Ecological requirements of reintroduced species and the implications for release policy: the case of the bearded vulture. Oxford, ROYAUME-UNI: Blackwell14.
Hosmer, D.W., Lemeshow, S.L., Sturdivant, R.X., 2013.Applied Logistic Regression, Third edition, John Wiley & Sons.
Imam, E., Kushwaha, S.P.S., Singh, A., 2009. Evaluation of suitable tiger habitat in Chandoli National Park, India, using spatial modelling of environmentalvariables. Ecological Modelling 220, 3621–3629.
Jones, C.C., Acker, S.A., Halpern, C.B., 2010. Combining local- and large-scalemodels to predict the distributions of invasive plant species. EcologicalApplications 20, 311–326.
Landis, J.R., Koch, G.G., 1977. The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometric 33,159-174.
Liu, C., Berry, P.M., Dawson,T.P., Pearson,R.G., 2005. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distribution. Ecography 28,385-393
Morovati, M., Karami, M., Kaboli, M., 2014. Desirable Areas and Effective Environmental Factors of Wild goat Habitat (Capra aegagrus).  International Journal of Environmental Research 8,1031-1040
Mostafavi, M., Alizadeh, A., Kaboli, M., Karami, M., Goljani, R., Mohammady, S., 2010. Producing summer and spring habitat suitability maps of wild goat in Lar nationalpark, Journal of sciences and techniques in natural resources, 111-121 (in persian).
Nazeri, M., Jusoff, K., Madani, N., Mahmud, A.R., Bahman, A.R., Kumar, L.,2012. Predictive Modeling and Mapping of Malayan Sun Bear(Helarctos malayanus) Distribution UsingMaximumEntropy, PLoS ONE 7, e48104.
Northrup, J., Stenhouse, G., Boyce, M., 2012. Agricultural lands as ecological traps for grizzly bears. Animal Conservation 15,369–377.
Pearce, J., Ferrier, S.,2000. Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression, Ecological Modelling 133 ,225–245.
Ranjbar, N., 2014. Habitat assossiation of wild goat in Kolah-Qazi national park, MS thesis, natural resource college, Isfahan university of technology (in persian).
Ranjbar, N., Hemami, M.R., Tarkesh, M., Shahgholian, J., 2016. Seasonal assessment of habitat suitability of the wild goat (Capra aegagrus) in mountainous areas of Kolah-Qazi national park using Maximum Entropy approach, Iranian journal of Applied Ecology, 16, 69-82(in persian).
Sarhangzadeh, J., Yavari, A.R., Hemami, M.R., Jafari, H.R., Shams-Esfandabad, B., 2013. Habitat suitability modeling for wild goat (Capra aegagrus) in amountainous arid area, central Iran, Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences 11,41-51.
Shahgholian ghahfarokhi, J., 2012. Ecology of wild goat in Kolah-Qazi national park, MS thesis, natural resource college, Isfahan university of technology(in persian).
Shams Esfandabad, B., Karami ,M., Riazi,B., Sadough, M.B., 2010. Habitat associations of wild goat in central Iran: implications for conservation.European Journal of Wildlife Research56, 883-894.
Singh, A., Kushwaha,S.P.S.,2011. Refining logistic regression models for wildlife habitat suitability modeling—A case study with muntjak and goral in the Central Himalayas, India.Ecological Modelling 222 ,1354–1366
Soltani, S., 2004. Comprehensive Kolah-Qazi national park project, physiography section, first volume, natural resource college, Isfahan university of technology (in persian).
Soltani, S., 2004. Comprehensive Kolah-Qazi national park project, physiography section, second volume, natural resource college, Isfahan university of technology (in persian).
Sweet, J.A., 1988. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic system.Science240, 1285-1293.
Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., et al., 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145–148.
Thuiller, W., et al., 2005.  Niche-based modeling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale. Global Change Biology11, 2234-2250.
Titeux, N., 2006. Modelling species distribution when habitat occupancy departs from suitability application to birds in a landscape context .  E´cole doctorale en biodiversite´. universite´ catholique de Louvain.
Tremblay, A. M.,Dibb,A.D.,2002. Modelling and restoration of bighorn sheep habitat within and adjacement to Kootwnay national park, British Columbia. Ecological Modelling. 163, 251-264.
Va´clavı´k, T., Meentemeyer, R.K., 2009. Invasive species distribution modeling(iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actualdistributions? Ecological Modelling 220, 3248–3258.
Whiting, J. C.,Flinders,J. T., Ogborn,G. L., 2001. GIS winter and Lambing Range Habitat Models for Reintroducing Bighorn Sheep in North Central Utah.  Biological conservation138, 207–223.
Wisz, M.S., Guisan, A.,2009. Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data.BMC Ecology9.
Yamada, K. J., et al.,2003. Elicting and intrgrating expert knowledge for wildlife habitat modeling. Ecological Modelling 165, 251-264.
Zafra-Calvo,N., Cerro, R., Fuller, T., Lobo, J.M., Rodrı´guez, M.A´., et al., 2010. Prioritizing areas for conservation and vegetation restoration in post-agriculturallandscapes: A Biosphere Reserve plan for Bioko, Equatorial Guinea. BiologicalConservation 143, 787–794.
Zaniewski, A.E., Lehmann, A., Overton, J.Mc.C.,2002. Predicting species spatial distributions using presence-only data: a case study of native New Zealand ferns. Ecological Modelling157, 261–280.
Zeigenfuss, L. C., Singer,F. J., Gudorf, M. A., 2000. Test of a modified habitat suitability model for bighorn sheep.  Restoration Ecology 8, 38–46.
Journal of Natural Environment
Volume 71, Issue 1
June 2018
Pages 65-78