Using Logistic Regression in Identification Climatology Factors Influencing the Distribution of Hormozgan Province Avicennia Marina Forests
Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 MSc., Environmental Science, Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Department of Forestry and Forest Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
Abstract
In recent years, mangrove forests with the high economical and environmental value are threatened with extinction by human activities. Ex-Situ conservation is an appropriate method to conservation this forest. This study was conducted with the purpose of studying the role of climatology factors as one of the most important environmental parameters in dispersion of mangrove forests of Hormozgan province and using logistic regression to modeling the prone areas for extending Avicennia marina. Temperature fluctuations, the average annual temperature, the absolute minimum temperature, average temperature of the coldest month of the year, the average annual rainfall, the minimum rainfall and the type of climate were considered as independent variables. Using Roc and Pseudo-R2, the accuracy of the model were estimated 0.75 and 0.24 respectively. Using the map resulting from modeling, the temperature fluctuations and the average annual temperature can anticipate the presence of A. marina up to 0.85% which shows the importance of two climatology factors for the presence of this forest. the probability of A. marina presence based on the climatology parameters wasn’t estimated to be zero so lack of presence of A marina in part of the coastal zone is due to inappropriate other environmental parameters. In 67% of coastal line the probability of presence of A. marina was estimated very high. In this areas temperature fluctuation was between 5 to 26.5 and the average annual temperature was between 26.7 to 27.6. Temperature fluctuation was recognized as the most important climatology parameter.
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