Journal of Natural Environment

Investigating the impact of trade liberalization on Iran's agricultural growth and trade: application of fuzzy regression

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.

2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.

10.22059/jne.2025.393354.2795

Abstract

Trade liberalization is one of the important principles in evaluating the economic development of countries. Considering the importance of KOF trade liberalization, it is necessary to examine the macroeconomic variables including growth and trade in the agricultural sector as one of the strategic sectors in the economy. In the present study, the effect of the uncertainty of trade liberalization on the growth and agricultural trade of Iran has been investigated using fuzzy regression model with symmetric and asymmetric coefficients for the time period of 1992-2021. According to the flexibility of the three-boundary phase regression model, high, medium and low exports, imports and the growth rate of the agricultural sector were calculated under conditions of uncertainty. Examining the impact of high export bounds and the growth rate of the agricultural sector at the membership level of 0.9 indicates that the uncertainty in trade liberalization and the real exchange rate and other factors have a significant impact on the growth and trade of the agricultural sector, this issue is sensitive to the agricultural sector. It stands out in the face of economic policies. The results of this study show that the KOF trade liberalization index variable in the upper bound among other factors has the greatest impact on import, export and growth rate of agricultural products with coefficients of 2.978, 1.963 and 0.002, respectively. Also, the added value of the agricultural sector has the greatest effect on the imports of agricultural products in the upper band with a coefficient of 5.492, and its effect on the exports of agricultural products is the same in all bands and is equal to 0.095. The real exchange rate also has the greatest effect on the exports in the upper band with a coefficient of 0.013 and 0.001 in imports and growth rate of the agricultural sector.

Keywords

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Journal of Natural Environment
Volume 78, Issue 3
November 2025
Pages 471-485