Journal of Natural Environment

Sensitivity analysis of weighting in multi-criteria habitat suitability assessment for the Goitered Gazelle: A case study of Shirahmad wildlife refuge

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Mazandaran, Iran.

2 Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.

10.22059/jne.2025.393479.2797

Abstract

The Shirahmad Wildlife Refuge, located in Razavi Khorasan Province, northeastern Iran, represents one of the key habitats of the goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa). This study aimed to evaluate habitat suitability and identify the main drivers of the species’ distribution using a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) approach. The applied criteria included ranger stations, water points, streams, rivers, core zones, forests, grasslands, roads, farmlands, dirt roads, salt marshes, and slope. The findings indicated that areas near water resources (water points: weight= 0.1753; rivers: weight= 0.1432) and ranger stations (weight= 0.1975) exhibited higher suitability. The model’s performance, assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, achieved an accuracy of 0.82, confirming the robustness of the final habitat suitability map. Furthermore, results showed that habitat suitability increased with higher suitability classes. Sensitivity analysis revealed that distance from rivers and slope were the most influential criteria. Based on the Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen tests, suitability trends showed an increasing pattern, with northern and western parts of the area being more suitable than southern and eastern regions. Overall, water resources, vegetation cover, and security were identified as the key determinants of gazelle distribution. Accordingly, establishing artificial water points in central and western zones and positioning ranger stations near Yahyaabad and Jalin villages are recommended. Additionally, changes in the weighting of criteria influenced habitat suitability maps, highlighting the importance of accurate parameterization. These findings can contribute to improving habitat assessments and designing effective strategies for the conservation of goitered gazelle populations in Shirahmad.

Keywords

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Journal of Natural Environment
Volume 78, Issue 2
September 2025
Pages 201-219