Journal of Natural Environment

Application of system dynamics modeling and life cycle impact assessment method based on endpoint in examining different waste management scenarios

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

2 Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

3 Department of Industrial management, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

4 Environmental Technologies Research Center, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran.

10.22059/jne.2025.385919.2731

Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop a comprehensive model of the urban waste management system to compare different waste management scenarios. For this reason, a comprehensive model was developed using a system dynamics approach. Additionally, the life cycle impact assessment method based on endpoint was used to compare the various waste management scenarios. The validation results for population changes and waste generation indicated excellent predictive value for the model. The results showed that the amount of waste generation is increasing during the simulation period and the volume of landfilled waste in all scenarios is greater than the remaining capacity of the landfill in the study area. The BAU scenario showed the worst situation in terms of environmental indicators, so that during the simulation period, the amount of landfillable waste and net greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent) reached 21.7 and 10 million tons, respectively. Also, the environmental damage cost due to waste landfilling during the simulation period has also reached $567 million. In contrast, organic waste management through anaerobic digestion and composting significantly improved the system's performance in terms of environmental indicators. In the anaerobic digestion scenario, the amount of waste landfilled, net greenhouse gas emissions, and environmental damage costs decreased by 66%, 269%, and 54%, respectively, compared to the BAU scenario. This study demonstrated that the system dynamics modeling approach can provide a comprehensive view of the waste management system and test various policies and strategies for sustainable waste management.

Keywords

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Journal of Natural Environment
Volume 78, Monitoring and Management of Natural Environmental Pollutants
June 2025
Pages 153-167