Journal of Natural Environment

Integrated vulnerability-resilience assessment in coupled systems: a novel approach in spatial model development

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Natural Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

2 Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran.

10.22059/jne.2025.387869.2743

Abstract

Spatial land management in response to environmental hazards and climate change requires an integrated assessment of vulnerability and resilience in social-ecological systems, as well as understanding the dynamic characteristics of these systems. Despite the existence of numerous frameworks and conceptual models in vulnerability assessment, the lack of comprehensive models in analyzing coupled systems' responses to multiple hazards and the interaction of influential components has created limitations in spatial land management. Furthermore, some significant scientific ambiguities and gaps in research related to this field remain unresolved. A review of resilience history indicates that more than several decades have passed since the introduction of the panarchy cycle, and during this period, despite multiple applications of this concept, its use in vulnerability-resilience models has largely remained in the form of descriptive and abstract concepts. By extending the panarchy cycle theory to threatened coupled systems, it can be inferred that land planning is a dynamic process lacking static characteristics. In fact, coupled systems have a dynamic mechanism that continuously goes through four stages of "exploitation," "conservation," "release," and "reorganization." In this research, by integrating hazard-risk and ecological resilience approaches, comprehensive conceptual models have been developed for integrated vulnerability-resilience assessment of coupled systems. Additionally, to visualize complex interactions between components of coupled systems, models with multidimensional and nonlinear processes and structures in relation to stresses have been utilized. The obtained results provide significant considerations in sustainable land management, particularly in critical conditions where planners are required to make immediate decisions to strengthen resilience at spatial-temporal critical points.

Keywords

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Journal of Natural Environment
Volume 79, Issue 1
June 2026
Pages 169-188