Land use and land cover change is one of the most important drivers influencing the dynamics of carbon storage and sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems and can have significant implications for climate balance and environmental sustainability. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of land use changes on ecosystem carbon storage and to analyze future scenarios in Savojbolagh and Chaharbagh counties using the InVEST model. For this purpose, land use maps for 2004 and 2024 were prepared and their changes were analyzed. Subsequently, the Carbon Storage module of the InVEST model was used to estimate carbon storage for each land use class and to assess its changes during the study period. In addition, two future scenarios, including a “business-as-usual” and a “conservation” scenario, were simulated for the year 2044 to examine potential future trends.

The results showed that during the period 2004–2024, the expansion of urban and industrial areas and the decline of natural land uses led to a decrease of approximately 446,628 tons in the total carbon storage of the region. Among the land use types, rangelands accounted for the largest share of carbon storage, while the greatest reductions occurred in areas affected by urban expansion. Scenario analysis indicated that if the current development trend continues, regional carbon storage will decrease by about 10.77% by 2044, whereas the implementation of conservation-oriented management policies could increase carbon storage by approximately 2.2%. Overall, the findings highlight the critical role of sustainable land use management and the control of urban expansion in maintaining the carbon sequestration capacity and ecological stability of the region. Integrating ecosystem service considerations into land use planning can therefore support improved land management and contribute to climate change mitigation.