Assessing the effects of agricultural land expansion on ecosystem services in a desert protected area using the InVEST model

This study aimed to assess the effects of agricultural land expansion on ecosystem services in the Kavir Protected Area. For this purpose, various tools of the InVEST model were used, including soil conservation, habitat quality, and water yield. The required data, including land use maps from 1986 and 2020, biophysical indices (R, K, C), climate information, soil characteristics, and vegetation cover, were prepared and processed in a GIS environment. The results showed that over the past four decades, about 3,804 hectares of rangelands and shrublands have been converted to agricultural lands; a change that has caused a significant decrease in ecosystem services, especially soil conservation and habitat quality. Agricultural lands had the highest soil loss (about 5,000 kg per pixel) and the lowest storage capacity, while rangelands and shrublands retained an average of about 16,750 kg of soil per pixel. Analysis of erosion indicators confirmed the increased susceptibility of the region to erosion as a result of the removal of natural cover. The results of the habitat quality model also showed that in the 2054 scenario, the trend of degradation is increasing and habitat quality is decreasing. Also, agricultural development caused a decrease in water production and disrupted the hydrological balance. Based on the findings, the continued expansion of agricultural lands can weaken the resilience of the desert ecosystem and highlight the need for conservation management and limiting development.