Journal of Natural Environment

Journal of Natural Environment

Assessing the effects of agricultural land expansion on ecosystem services in a desert protected area using the InVEST model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Amir Memarzadeh Kiani 1
Mohamad Javad Amiri 2
Ahmad Nohegar 3
1 Researcher and graduate, Department of Planning and Management and Environmental Education, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran
2 Faculty Member, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran
3 Department of Planning and Management and Environmental Education, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
10.22059/jne.2026.408430.2871
Abstract
Land-use change, particularly the expansion of agricultural lands, is considered one of the most significant drivers affecting the transformation of ecosystem services in arid and hyper-arid ecosystems. This study aimed to spatially analyze the impact of agricultural land expansion on ecosystem services in the Kavir Protected Area. To this end, land cover/land use changes for the years 1986 and 2020 were extracted and analyzed based on Landsat satellite imagery. Subsequently, using the InVEST model and spatial analyses within a GIS environment, three ecosystem services—soil retention, habitat quality, and water yield—were evaluated, and a land-use change scenario for 2054 was also analyzed. The results indicated that during the study period, approximately 3,804 hectares of natural rangelands and shrublands were converted into agricultural lands. Outputs from the soil retention module and the USLE equation revealed that agricultural lands exhibited the highest soil loss (approximately 5,000 kg per pixel) and the lowest soil protection capacity, whereas shrublands and rangelands showed the highest soil retention potential (around 16,750 kg per pixel). Habitat quality module results also demonstrated a decline in habitat quality and an increase in degradation intensity due to agricultural expansion, a trend that is projected to intensify in the 2054 scenario. Moreover, the water yield module indicated a reduction in water production resulting from increased evapotranspiration caused by agricultural development. Overall, the findings highlight that agricultural expansion undermines the regulating ecosystem services of the region, emphasizing the necessity of limiting agricultural development and considering ecological factors in the management of the Kavir Protected Area.
Keywords
;">Ecosystem services, ;">InVEST model, ;">Kavir Protected Area, ;">Spatial analysis.
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Journal of Natural Environment
Volume 79, Issue 3
Summer 2026
Pages 457-473