نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

بررسی تأثیر آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد رگرسیون فازی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدة اقتصاد و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

2 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

10.22059/jne.2025.393354.2795

چکیده

آزادسازی تجاری یکی از اصول مهم در ارزیابی توسعه­یافتگی اقتصاد کشورها است. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع بررسی آزادسازی تجاری KOF برمتغیرهای کلان اقتصادی از جمله رشد و تجارت در بخش کشاورزی به­عنوان یکی از بخش­های راهبردی در اقتصاد ضروری است. در مطالعة حاضر تأثیرعدم ­قطعیت آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد و تجارت کشاورزی ایران به کمک مدل رگرسیون ­فازی با ضرایب متقارن و نامقارن برای دورة ­زمانی 1400-1371 بررسی شده ­است. با توجه ­به انعطاف­پذیری مدل رگرسیون ­فازی سه­ کران بالا، متوسط و پایین صادرات، واردات و نرخ رشد بخش کشاورزی در شرایط عدم ­قطعیت محاسبه شد. بررسی تأثیر کران­ه ای بالای صادرات و نرخ رشد بخش کشاورزی در درجة عضویت 0/9 حاکی از آن است که عدم ­قطعیت در آزادسازی تجاری و نرخ واقعی ارز و سایر عوامل تأثیر قابل ­توجهی بر رشد و تجارت بخش کشاورزی دارد این موضوع حساسیت بخش کشاورزی را در مواجه با مباحث سیاست­های اقتصادی برجسته می­کند. نتایج این مطالعه نشان می­دهد که متغیر شاخص آزادسازی تجاری KOF در کران ­بالا از بین سایر عوامل بیشترین تأثیر را به‌ترتیب با ضرایب 2/978، 1/963و 0/002 بر واردات، صادرات و نرخ رشد محصولات کشاورزی دارد. همچنین ارزش افزودة بخش کشاورزی بر واردات محصولات­کشاورزی درکران بالا با ضریب 5/492 بیشترین تأثیر را دارد و تأثیر آن بر صادرات محصولات ­کشاورزی در هر سه کران یکسان و برابر با 0/095 است. نرخ واقعی ارز نیز بیشترین تأثیر را در کران بالابه­ ترتیب با ضرایب 0/013 بر صادرات و 0/001 بر واردات و نرخ رشد بخش کشاورزی داشته ­است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the impact of trade liberalization on Iran's agricultural growth and trade: application of fuzzy regression

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Ashraf Ganjoei 1
  • Nasrullah Habibi Fathabadi 2
  • Gholamreza Zamanian 1
  • Seyed Mehdi Hosseini 1

1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.

2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Trade liberalization is one of the important principles in evaluating the economic development of countries. Considering the importance of KOF trade liberalization, it is necessary to examine the macroeconomic variables including growth and trade in the agricultural sector as one of the strategic sectors in the economy. In the present study, the effect of the uncertainty of trade liberalization on the growth and agricultural trade of Iran has been investigated using fuzzy regression model with symmetric and asymmetric coefficients for the time period of 1992-2021. According to the flexibility of the three-boundary phase regression model, high, medium and low exports, imports and the growth rate of the agricultural sector were calculated under conditions of uncertainty. Examining the impact of high export bounds and the growth rate of the agricultural sector at the membership level of 0.9 indicates that the uncertainty in trade liberalization and the real exchange rate and other factors have a significant impact on the growth and trade of the agricultural sector, this issue is sensitive to the agricultural sector. It stands out in the face of economic policies. The results of this study show that the KOF trade liberalization index variable in the upper bound among other factors has the greatest impact on import, export and growth rate of agricultural products with coefficients of 2.978, 1.963 and 0.002, respectively. Also, the added value of the agricultural sector has the greatest effect on the imports of agricultural products in the upper band with a coefficient of 5.492, and its effect on the exports of agricultural products is the same in all bands and is equal to 0.095. The real exchange rate also has the greatest effect on the exports in the upper band with a coefficient of 0.013 and 0.001 in imports and growth rate of the agricultural sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural trade
  • Economic growth
  • Fuzzy regression
  • Trade liberalization
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 78، شماره 3
آبان 1404
صفحه 471-485