نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

تحلیل اکوهیدرولوژیک اثر کربن سیاه بر تسریع ذوب برف در ارتفاعات البرز با بهره‌گیری از سنجش‌ازدور و مدل‌سازی آماری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدة مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری ایران.

10.22059/jne.2025.401222.2835

چکیده

برف کوهستانی به‌عنوان یکی از عناصر کلیدی چرخة هیدرولوژیک، نقشی اساسی در ذخیره و رهاسازی منابع آب سطحی و زیرسطحی ایفا می‌کند. با این حال، آلودگی ناشی از کربن سیاه می‌تواند بازتابندگی سطح برف را کاهش داده و موجب تسریع در فرآیند ذوب شود. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی رابطة میان غلظت کربن سیاه و تغییرات آلبیدوی برف در رشته‌کوه البرز در محدودة ارتفاعی بالاتر از 2000 متر از سطح دریا در بازة زمانی 2000 تا 2024 با رویکرد اکوهیدرولوژیک بوده ‌است. برای این منظور، داده‌های آلبیدو از محصول MOD10A1 V6.1 و داده‌های کربن سیاه از بازتحلیل MERRA-2 استخراج شد. روابط تحلیل آماری به روش رگرسیون خطی و مدل جمعی تعمیم‌یافته (GAM) انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد همبستگی منفیِ معنی‌داری بین غلظت کربن سیاه و آلبیدوی برف در ماه‌های زمستان و اوایل بهار وجود دارد. بنابراین آلاینده‌ها در کاهش بازتابندگی و افزایش سرعت ذوب برف نقش دارند. خروجی مدل GAM رابطة غیرخطی بین غلظت کربن سیاه و حساسیت آلبیدو را نشان داد. حساسیت آلبیدو پس از عبور غلظت کربن سیاه از آستانة 0/38 میکروگرم بر مترمربع افزایش یافته و با رسیدن به سطح اشباع 0/45 میکروگرم بر مترمربع کاهش یافت. در بازة بحرانی 0/40 تا 0/50 بیشترین افت آلبیدو مشاهده شد. بررسی روند داده‌ها نیز حاکی از افزایش معنی‌دار کربن سیاه در اغلب ماه‌ها و کاهش پیوستة آلبیدو در دورة سرد سال است. تحلیل عاملی نیز نشان داد که اگرچه عامل دما-رطوبت در بسیاری از سال‌ها روند پایداری داشته است، اما روند افزایشی نوسانات عامل آلودگی-تابشی از حدود یک دهة اخیر به‌عنوان عامل محرک اصلی ذوب زودرس برف است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Ecohydrological analysis of black carbon effects on accelerated snowmelt in the Alborz highlands using remote sensing and statistical modeling

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Norooz-Valashedi
  • Mohammadreza Noroozian-Rostami

Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Mountain snow, as a key component of the hydrological cycle, plays a crucial role in supplying both surface and subsurface water resources. This study employed an ecohydrological approach and remote sensing data to investigate the impact of black carbon (BC) pollution on snow surface albedo in the Alborz Mountains at elevations above 2000 meters during 2000–2024. Albedo data were obtained from the MOD10A1 V6.1 product, and BC data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis. Statistical analyses, including linear regression and the Generalized Additive Model (GAM), were conducted to examine temporal and monthly relationships between these variables. Results revealed a significant negative correlation between BC concentration and snow albedo during winter and early spring, highlighting the direct role of pollutants in reducing reflectivity and accelerating snowmelt. GAM results showed a nonlinear relationship between BC concentration and albedo sensitivity: sensitivity increased when BC exceeded 0.38 µg/m² but declined after reaching a saturation point of 0.45 µg/m². This identifies a critical BC concentration range of 0.40–0.50 µg/m², where snow albedo experiences the greatest reduction. Additionally, temporal trends indicated a significant increase in BC for most months and a continuous decline in albedo during cold periods. Factor analysis further demonstrated that, although the temperature–moisture factor remained stable over many years, increasing fluctuations in the pollution–radiation factor over the past decade have been the main driver of early snowmelt.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Albedo
  • Black carbon
  • Factor analysis
  • Generalized additive model
  • Remote sensing
  • Snow reserves
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 78، شماره 2
شهریور 1404
صفحه 253-266