نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

تحلیل حساسیت وزن‌دهی در ارزیابی چندمعیارة مطلوبیت زیستگاه آهوی گواتردار پناهگاه شیراحمد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه محیط‌ زیست، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، شهرستان نور، مازندران، ایران.

2 گروه محیط‌ زیست، دانشکدة منابع طبیعی و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران.

10.22059/jne.2025.393479.2797

چکیده

پناهگاه حیات وحش شیراحمد یکی از زیستگاه‌های کلیدی آهوی گواتردار (Gazella subgutturosa) در شمال‌شرقی ایران و واقع در استان خراسان رضوی است. این پژوهش با هدف ارزیابی مطلوبیت زیستگاه و شناسایی عوامل تعیین‌کنندة پراکنش این گونه، از رویکرد ارزیابی چندمعیاره استفاده نمود. معیارهای مورد استفاده شامل پاسگاه محیط‌بانی، آبشخور، آبراهه، رودخانه، زون امن، جنگل، علفزار، جاده، مزارع، جاده خاکی، شوره‌زار و شیب بودند. بررسی‌های انجام شده حاکی از آن است که مناطق نزدیک به منابع آبی (آبشخور: وزن0/1753 و رودخانه: وزن 0/1432) و پاسگاه‌های محیط‌بانی (وزن: 0/1975)، از مطلوبیت بالاتری برخوردارند. نتایج ارزیابی صحت مدل‌ با شاخص (ROC)Receiver Operating Characteristic، با مقدار 0/82 بیانگر صحت بالای نقشة نهایی است، به‌علاوه نتایج حاصل نشان داد که با افزایش درصد، مطلوبیت زیستگاه نیز افزایش می‌یابد. در ادامه معیارهای فاصله از رودخانه و شیب به‌عنوان حساس‌ترین معیارها در تحلیل حساسیت شناسایی شدند. همچنین براساس آزمون من-کندال و تایل-سن روند تغییرات در گام افزایشی نشان‌دهندة مطلوبیت بیشتر مناطق شمالی و غربی نسبت به مناطق جنوبی و شرقی است. براساس نتایج حاصل، منابع آبی، پوشش گیاهی و امنیت، عوامل مؤثر بر پراکنش آهوی گواتردار در منطقه بوده، بنابراین احداث آبشخورهای مصنوعی در بخش‌های مرکزی و غربی و استقرار پاسگاه‌ محیط‌بانی در نزدیکی روستاهای یحیی‌آباد و جلین پیشنهاد می‌شود. همچنین، تحلیل تغییر وزن معیارها بیانگر تأثیرپذیری نقشه‌های مطلوبیت زیستگاه از این تغییرات بود. این یافته‌ها می‌توانند به بهبود دقت ارزیابی زیستگاه و تدوین راهکارهای مؤثرتر در حفاظت از جمعیت آهوی گواتردار کمک کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity analysis of weighting in multi-criteria habitat suitability assessment for the Goitered Gazelle: A case study of Shirahmad wildlife refuge

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amirmohammad Habibi 1
  • Bonyad Ahmadi 1
  • Mehdi Gholamalifard 1
  • Seyed Mahmoud Ghasempouri 1
  • Ali Ghoraei 2

1 Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Mazandaran, Iran.

2 Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran.

چکیده [English]

The Shirahmad Wildlife Refuge, located in Razavi Khorasan Province, northeastern Iran, represents one of the key habitats of the goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa). This study aimed to evaluate habitat suitability and identify the main drivers of the species’ distribution using a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) approach. The applied criteria included ranger stations, water points, streams, rivers, core zones, forests, grasslands, roads, farmlands, dirt roads, salt marshes, and slope. The findings indicated that areas near water resources (water points: weight= 0.1753; rivers: weight= 0.1432) and ranger stations (weight= 0.1975) exhibited higher suitability. The model’s performance, assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, achieved an accuracy of 0.82, confirming the robustness of the final habitat suitability map. Furthermore, results showed that habitat suitability increased with higher suitability classes. Sensitivity analysis revealed that distance from rivers and slope were the most influential criteria. Based on the Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen tests, suitability trends showed an increasing pattern, with northern and western parts of the area being more suitable than southern and eastern regions. Overall, water resources, vegetation cover, and security were identified as the key determinants of gazelle distribution. Accordingly, establishing artificial water points in central and western zones and positioning ranger stations near Yahyaabad and Jalin villages are recommended. Additionally, changes in the weighting of criteria influenced habitat suitability maps, highlighting the importance of accurate parameterization. These findings can contribute to improving habitat assessments and designing effective strategies for the conservation of goitered gazelle populations in Shirahmad.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Goitered gazelle
  • Habitat suitability
  • Shirahmad Wildlife Refuge
  • Sensitivity analysis
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 78، شماره 2
شهریور 1404
صفحه 201-219